What is a First half Market? First half markets are offered pre-game on common bet types such as Moneyline, Point Spread and Total. They focus only on the action that occurs in the first half of the game and are resulted based on the halftime scoreline. They are popular with bettors who believe a first half trend exists that gives them an edge.
First Half Bet Types
First Half Moneyline
The first half moneyline, just like the regular moneyline bet, is resulted based on the outright winner of the first half. That is, the team that is leading on the scoreboard when they head to the locker room for oranges. There is one major difference though.
First half moneyline bets include a third and very real possible outcome. That is the half time draw or tie. As the game clearly has a second half to be played, it is absolutely possible for teams to be level going into the long break and therefore they can’t be separated from a betting perspective.
So How Do Sportsbooks Handle The Tie?
In most cases sportsbooks will employ the ‘Dead Heat Rule’ to handle the tie. This means they will not specifically offer the draw or tie as a betting option but if it occurs bettors will receive half of the original odds of their wager.
For example, if a bettor wagered $100 on a -125 favorite to win the first half they could expect to win $80 profit for a total collect of $190. If the first half was to end in a tie the bettor would receive ‘half odds’ or essentially half the payout. In this case that would be $90. Therefore the bettor outlayed $100 and received just $90 back. An overall loss of $10.
On the flipside if the same bettor had wagered the same $100 on the +120 underdog in the same 1st half market they would expect to win $120 profit for a total collect of $220. If the first half tie were to eventuate then the bettor would receive half odds payout of $110 for a total profit of just $10. Hey at least it’s still a profit.
Sometimes sportsbooks will include the first half tie as a betting option, that is, they create a three way market. In this case a winning bet in the event of a tie must have been specifically bet on that outcome. As an example PointsBet Sportsbook offer the tie option for NCAA and NBA Basketball, NFL Football and NHL first half markets, this is called the ‘Moneyline 3 Way Market’
Note: Hockey first half markets are more accurately first period markets. Due to low scoring the tie is a significant possibility than in other sports. The odds reflect this.
First Half Point Spread
The first half point spread is again very similar to the traditional regular game point spread where the favorite ‘lays points’ ( a minus handicap) and the underdog is ‘plus points’ (a plus handicap). The bet wins when the team covers the spread (the handicap) after it is applied to the half Time score.
For example, if a team is a 1.5 points first half favorite (-1.5) the need to be winning by 2 or more points at halftime for the bet to win. In this market the first half is treated like a mini game in its own right. The key here is there is clearly no overtime. A halftime tie will result in favor of the plus points underdog.
An interesting comparison to make when looking at first half point spreads is to line them up against the regular time spread. Below is a table of some games from a regular season Sunday slate in the NFL.
| Game | First Half Handicap | Regular Time Handicap |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions | +/- 3 | +/-6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins | +/- 3.5 | +/- 6.5 |
| Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | +/- 3 | +/-4.5 |
| New England Patriots @ Cincinnatti Bengals | +/-6 | +/-10.5 |
| Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans | +/-2.5 | +/-3 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers | +/-3.5 | +/-6 |
| Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | +/-6.5 | +/-9.5 |
It can be seen that setting the first half spread is not as simple as just taking half of the regular time spread. This is because of a number of factors.
Some teams have a slow start trend while others are quick starters. Some teams’s coaching staff may be better at breaking down an opponent during a game and adjusting play calls which results in a shift in momentum in the second half.
In other cases impending weather which may arrive during a game can slow scoring or the effect of a prevailing wind may mean scoring to one end is more likely.
In the above example it can be seen that the Buccaneers Lions game has the classic 3 point first half 6 point regular time handicap split, but in the Titans Texans game the first half spread is +/-2.5 and the regular time spread is just half a point more at +/-3.
Of course in the case of the NFL, scoring patterns are affected by the possible points multiples which come with field goals and touchdowns (3s and 7s). If a teams is a touchdown favorite for the game, then being half a touchdown favorite in the first half makes sense mathematically but is harder to measure in reality. A field goal is not half a touchdown. It gets tricky.
There really is an endless list of potential variables which affect scoring. Deciphering which one has the most effect on a given day in a given game is the art of first half point spread betting.
First Half Totals
This market mirrors the traditional regular time Points Total market. In fact most times the first half market is a reflection of the full time market in that it is approximately half of the total. For example a 42.5 point regular time total usually points to a first half total of around 21 points. It may be 21.5 or it may be 20.5 (significant difference) but its generally around half.
As we know scoring in the NFL happens in a nonlinear way, meaning just because the game is played in two halves doesn’t mean the scoring will happen that way. The key here for first half bettors is to attempt to decipher if the bulk of the scoring will occur in the first or second half and bet accordingly. Easier said than done.
Common First Half Betting Strategies
Like all betting strategies there is no one size fits all approach. These are intended to help you focus your thinking so you can more quickly spot opportunities to capitalise on first half betting markets.
1. Sniff Out The Slow Start
Whether it be the favorite or the underdog an unexpectedly slow start will effect all first half betting markets. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to a team’s lacklustre beginning but other times there are factors that are more identifiable and an eye for these can be profitable.
For example, we all know the NBA schedule is gruelling. This tends to throw up opportunities for bettors. A team coming off an overtime game the night before may be sluggish the next night, particularly if they are on the road and have had to travel on game day. This could point to a play on the Under for that team’s first half total or their opponent against the first half spread.
Another example of a potential slow start would be an NFL team coming off a short week. This could be a team that played a Monday night game on the west coast and now has to play a Sunday afternoon east coast game. It could be the team that plays in the late Sunday afternoon time slot and then backs up again Thursday night on the road. The combination of a shortened preparation and travel is a recipe for a sluggish start.
The Take Home: Take note of a teams schedule and the effect that a gruelling stretch may have on an otherwise high performing team. You may just sniff out a flat performance which allows you to snap up a value play on the underdog or the under market.
2. The First Half Blow Out
The concept behind this strategy is simple. The gruelling nature of professional sports means that during the regular season if a team has a chance to manage the workload of their stars they will most likely take it. With that in mind many regular first half bettors look to bet a team laying big points to cover in the first half instead of taking a regular time play.
The thought is that if the favorite puts the game to bed as a contest early, covering the first half spread, they will then take their foot of the gas putting the regular time cover at risk. It makes sense.
The Take Home: Look for a heavy favorite that is playoff bound. The margin of victory is less important than just banking the win and managing workload. The first half cover is a genuine play ahead of the regular time cover as it takes less predictable junk time play out of the equation.
3. Teams Under Performing in Unfamiliar Conditions
It’s often said that road teams struggle. The fact is it’s just not as simple as that. There are road games and then there are genuine road games. A true away game occurs when a team plays in conditions that are very unfamiliar to them. Not only do they have to overcome their opponent but they have to adjust quickly to the conditions, often adjusting their game style. These types of changes on the run can make an outcome far less predictable.
The Take Home: Teams playing in unfamiliar conditions can take time to adjust and this may reduce their scoring, or effect performance against the spread. The first half markets are where bettors can capitalize by fading them early. Look for weather extremes, games at altitudes or significant time differences (ie west coast team playing in the east).
4. Do or Die Match Ups
When the stakes go up, so does the intensity of the contest. In do or die matchups teams can adopt more conservative game styles, particularly in the early stages. This makes sense, but it’s not that simple. In fact scoring in NFL playoffs games is about 3% higher than the regular season. The key here is too understand that in playoff situations the underdog will employ a disruptive approach to the game style of their opponent. They will often unveil a tactic not seen in the regular season. It may succeed, it may fall flat.
The Take Home: In playoff sports look for large underdogs who may flip the game style to disrupt their opponent. This can break the game open and promote less predictable scoring patterns, particularly in the first half before the game settles down. To a lesser extent divisional match ups fit into this category also.
5. Attack the Low Handle
Modern sports betting has developed efficiencies not seen previously. In high profile sports those efficiencies come from the weight of money. Eventually the market decides on a starting total or handicap number simply because the money pushes it there. So as a first half bettor there merit in attacking the markets that have not attracted the money and have not developed in built efficiencies.
Lower public interest is an advantage.
The Take Home: To spot weakness via inefficiency look for low interest games for example an obscure Saturday afternoon college football game. The strategy here is that lower handle means sportsbook have less information to work with and as such some astute analysis may just point you in the direction of value.
6. Fade the Public’s Early Season Expectations
Fading the public is not a new betting tactic but it can be tweaked to suit the needs of a first half markets bettors. In the early part of the season bettors tend to be exuberant in betting popular opinion. We know the court of public opinion is wrong as often as it is right.
For example, red hot offenses on paper can take time to build combination and therefore lack rhythm. Odds makers know recreational bettors may chase the hype and look for an overs bet. Therefore take the under.
The Take Home: Look for public over reaction and apply that to your first half betting. There is often value in this tactic that sticks around until the public opinion changes.
7. The Short Time Frame
The first half market quite obviously is a short time frame market. This means there is potential volatility in the market. Take an NFL 3.5 point first half favorite. If they are to concede the first touchdown of the game they are now 11 points from covering the spread. Minimum two possessions. That takes time. The 3.5 favorite is now up against it.
The same could be said for an NBA underdog that shoots the lights out for a quarter. The short time frame means there is less time for that outlier to be overcome by the favorite. Small variations to the norm are accentuated in first half market betting.
The Take Home: Don’t be shy. The shorter time frame promotes volatility. Cream rises to the top but in first half markets there is less time for this to happen. The underdog can go toe to toe for a short period of time and this favors the unpredictable.
Where to for First Half Markets?
First half markets will always remain popular but we see a change coming. They will be required to compete heavily with the growing live betting market. The advent of mobile betting in the US has made live betting an attractive option for bettors. Therefore many will prefer to wait to gather some real time information by closely watching the early stages of a game before committing to a first half wager. Of course that same information will be available to bookies so there may not be an edge.
The issue with waiting for live markets is that even on mobile you need to be especially fast to get the price or number you desire. Betting pre-game removes some of the need for haste and allows for a more considered decision.
What’s worth keeping an eye on is if live betting takes off to the point where the handle on first half markets is reduced, there is a possibility that some efficences are removed from the market and an edge may appear.
One thing is for certain when it comes to betting on sports. Its ever evolving and the only constant is change. Stay alert.
The Game Starts Now!
First half markets are a time honored bet type that offer a true alternative to regular time betting. While they may not be your staple bet they are worth learning about and adding to your betting repertoire. A successful bettor is agile. They find bet types that suit a particular circumstance and use that to their advantage.
Good Luck and as always, gamble responsibly.
