Every sports fan, whether obsessed fanatic or just weekend watcher has an opinion on who is going to win the big game. The rise and rise of the online sports betting juggernaut has seen many a sideline expert, put hard earned cash on the line, in an attempt to turn their opinion into profit. The purest form of online sports gambling is without doubt the moneyline.
The moneyline represents the odds for a team to win a match outright. The odds are fixed for the bettor at the time the bet is placed. If the team wagered on loses, so too does the bet. This is one of the most popular forms of betting due to simplicity. Moneyline odds are also referred to as American.
What do the Plus and Minus Mean on Moneyline Odds?
While the moneyline bet is close to the simplest type of bet to place on sports, the inexperienced sports bettor can often be confused by how to read the odds. The basis of the odds are that they reflect, in the case of the underdog, how much money a gambler will win if they bet $100, or in the case of the favourite, how much they need to bet to win $100. Quite a big difference and definitely a little tricky.
The following is an example of the moneyline market offered by a sportsbook during the NBA playoffs..
| NBA West Conference First Round Playoffs | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +105 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | -128 |
As the Portland Trail Blazers are the home team they are listed second in this market. Interestingly in many international or offshore sports the home team is listed first. Perhaps in this case the home court advantage is what has led the sports books to install the Trail Blazers as the favoured team.
We can tell Portland has favouritism as the odds have a minus sign at the front. Any time a team has minus sign out front then the bettor knows they will be receiving less than a 2 – 1 payout figure. In fact in this case to win $100 wagering on the Trail Blazers you would need to stake $128.
In this particular case the Oklahoma City Thunder are the outsider or underdog as they have odds with a plus sign at the front. This means if you bet $100 on OKC then you would collect $105 profit, a total return of $205.
Clearly in this case the bookmakers considered the game to be potentially close and therefore odds were reasonably tight. As it turned out the Trailblazers dominated the second half and ran out convincing winners 114 – 92. Moneyline bettors who took Portland go to bed with a tidy profit. In actual fact the margin of victory is irrelevant as the Moneyline requires just one condition be met. A win!
How to Do the Math on Moneyline Odds?
Despite the Moneyline or American odds looking confusing at first sight, the underlying math is not too difficult. Having said that it could be much more user friendly.
Referring back to the previous example the following math applies:
Plus Moneyline (Underdog)
Oklahoma City Thunder +105
To calculate the payout
Profit = Stake × (Odds ÷ 100)
= $100 × (105 ÷ 100)
= $100 × 1.05
= $105
Payout = Profit + Stake
= $105 + $100
= $205
Minus Moneyline (favourite)
Portland Trail Blazers -128
To calculate payout
Profit = Stake ÷ (Odds ÷ 100)
= $100 ÷ (128 ÷ 100)
= $100 ÷ 1.28
= $78.12
Payout = Stake + Profit
= $100 + $78.12
= $178.12
The issue with this way of reporting odds is that the bettor has to do more than one level of calculation themself. While it’s all fairly straightforward it does affect the user experience.
Moneyline Decimal Odds Comparison
The decimal odds method which is being increasingly used by sports bookmakers across the globe removes the extra step of calculation required by the bettor. It is a much simpler method to offer odds on the identical market.
The previous example presented as decimal odds would read as follows:
| NBA West Conference First Round Playoffs | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 2.05 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 1.78 |
The payout calculation is where the ease of decimal odds is highlighted:
Underdog
Oklahoma City Thunder 2.05
Payout = Stake × Odds
= $100 × 2.05
= $205
Favourite
Portland Trail Blazers 1.78
Payout = Stake × Odds
= $100 × 1.78
= $178
It is clear that the decimal method is a much simpler way for sport bettors to calculate their potential winnings. It is hoped that one day soon most sports books will offer decimal odds instead of American odds. After all one of the more popular variations of a moneyline bet is to parlay several results into one wager. In order to multiply the individual odds to create the parlay payout figure the moneyline is converted to decimal odds in any case.
Does the Moneyline Include Overtime?
The moneyline will include overtime in most cases. This means if the team wagered on goes on to win the game in the overtime period the bet will stand as though game had been won in regulation time. The major exception to this of course is soccer where the draw is a viable option. Having said that, many sportsbooks will still offer a ‘draw no bet’ market. This means that if the match were to finish in a draw the bet would be refunded. The odds on each team winning are reduced to reflect this variation in outcomes.
Another caveat to the overtime Moneyline payout occurs in the NFL. During the regular season the NFL overtime rules stipulate that one extra 10 minute period will be played. If the deadlock has not been broken at the end of that time period the match will be adjudicated a tie. In this case sportsbooks apply the ‘dead heat’ rule to moneyline bets.
The dead heat rule is derived from thoroughbred racing and is applied when two horses can not be separated at the finish. Both deemed winners. In this case, as with NFL moneyline betting, the original payout figure is halved.
For example let’s looks at the following game from the Week 1 of the 2018/19 NFL Season
| NFL Week 1 | Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds | Final/OT |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -173 | 1.57 | 21 |
| Cleveland Browns | +156 | 2.56 | 21 |
In the above match despite 10 minutes of overtime, the Steelers and Browns could not be separated. The match was officially a tie.
Due to the dead heat rule a moneyline bettor who wagered $100 on the Steelers would have received $78.50 total payout. That is half of the $157 they would have expected had the Steelers won outright. This represents an actual loss of $21.50 on the bet. Not great but better than seeing the whole stake evaporate. At least they live to fight again another day.
On the other hand, the dead heat rule meant a moneyline better who wagered $100 on the Browns would have received $128 total payout. That is half of the $256 they were due to receive had the Browns won outright and an overall profit of $28. Again not the most ideal outcome given the Browns could have easily won, but at least a profit.
Moneyline Parlays
A parlay is a bet the allows the bettor to bundle together a series of wagers in which the stake and winnings from the first wager is placed (or parlayed) on that next wager. The payout odds are in fact a multiplication of the decimal odds of each of the parlay legs.
Moneyline bets are a very popular option to add to parlay bets. The key reason for this is the simplicity of the moneyline bet and that if chosen correctly reflects the true odds of a bet winning.
A strategy often used by more sophisticated punters is a parlay that is exclusively moneyline bets. For example in a particular week of the NFL a bettor may bundle together the 3 or 4 teams they deem most likely to win (often favourites). Alternatively the bettor may look for two underdogs that they believe are good moneyline shots and bundle those together giving them quite juicy odds. This allow them to stake small and aim for a handsome payout.
For a more in-depth look at getting value from moneyline parlays click here.
Winning Percentage Threshold for Profitable Moneyline Wagering
The following table presents the winning percentage threshold required to break even or move to profitability at varying moneyline odds. It also includes the equivalent decimal odds comparison. The table is useful in gaining a deeper understanding of the moneyline but it is also very powerful when attempting to decide the whether a particular market represents value.
| Underdog | Betting | Favorite | Betting | ||
| Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds | Win % Required | Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds | Win % Required |
| +400 | 5.00 | 20.00% | -400 | 1.25 | 80.00% |
| +375 | 4.75 | 21.00% | -375 | 1.27 | 79.00% |
| +350 | 4.50 | 22.30% | -350 | 1.29 | 77.80% |
| +325 | 4.25 | 23.50% | -325 | 1.31 | 76.50% |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.00% | -300 | 1.33 | 75.10% |
| +275 | 3.75 | 26.66% | -275 | 1.36 | 73.33% |
| +250 | 3.50 | 28.50% | -250 | 1.40 | 71.40% |
| +225 | 3.25 | 30.75% | -225 | 1.44 | 70.00% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% | -200 | 1.50 | 66.66% |
| +175 | 2.75 | 36.40% | -175 | 1.57 | 63.70% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% | -150 | 1.66 | 60.00% |
| +125 | 2.25 | 44.50% | -125 | 1.80 | 56% |
The power of this table is in its impact on the long term gambler. Anyone can bet on a -400 moneyline favourite and win today, but to make a profit long term the -400 bet has to win better than 4 out of every 5 times. Just one loss at that price is a major setback.
Likewise betting on an underdog can seem like a strategy for making money. It is however, not as straight forward as finding a +300 outsider and just throwing some cash on them. The +300 team must win more than 1 out of every 4 times for you to turn any profit at all. +300 teams can and do win often however those kind of odds are often kept, for example, for teams with a less than 500 record on the road to a number one seed, or to an injury ravaged side on a 8 game losing run on the road to a playoff bound side. By all means jump on them but you need to see something that warrants the risk.
Profitability when betting the moneyline is no mean feat. As you can see here, a variety of strategies could be used to achieve a consistent profit. What is clear though is finding value is the most important feature. There is no point in betting on a team if it’s odds seem less than its actual chance of winning, regardless of its favouritism or underdog status.
As always when gambling on sport only bet with money you can afford to lose.
