Sports betting throws up daily challenges for beginners and veterans alike. One of the eternal battles waged by all bettors is the fight to master the point spread. Picking an outright winner is tough enough. Add in a points handicap and the job gets a whole lot harder.
What is the point spread? Sometimes referred to as the handicap, equalizer or line, the point spread is a popular style of sports betting where bettors make a selection based on a predetermined points handicap. For example in the NFL a team may be deemed a 3.5 point favorite (written as -3.5). This means for the bet to pay they must win by 4 or more points. Typically point spread odds are around -110.
How Does The Point Spread Work?
The point spread is a way for sportsbooks to offer a market on any event that is essentially a coin flip or 50/50 option. They do this by adding or taking away points from a team’s score. This ‘handicap’ means that bettors are no longer betting on an outright winner but on the team that wins ‘against the spread’. That is, after the points are either added or taken away from the final score, the team with the higher score wins.
Let’s look at the below example from the National Football League:
In this example, the Chicago Bears are the favored team. This can be identified by the fact this sportsbook has placed the points spread line at 3.5 and they are the minus team. Meaning they need to win by 4 or more for the bet to cash. Alternatively the Packers are +3.5 so even if they were to lose by less than 4 points a bet on them would cash.
Imagine this game was to finish 24 – 21 in favor of the Bears. The bettors who took the +3.5 points being offered on Green Bay would have won the bet.
What Does It Mean To Cover The Spread?
When the team giving away points, the favorite, wins they are said to have ‘covered’. This is referring to the fact that they have not only won the game outright, they have also won by enough to beat the handicap as well. Therefore they have ‘covered the spread’.
What Does It Mean to Take a Team ‘Plus The Points’?
When a bettor wagers on the underdog in a point spread market they are said to be ‘taking the team plus the points’. This refers to that fact that in point spread betting the underdog receives added points or plus points. Therefore for the bet to win the plus points team has to win outright or lose by less than the added points.
Betting Against the Spread (ATS)
When a bettor places a point spread wager they are said to be betting ‘against the spread’ meaning they are not concerned about the outright winner but instead how the team performs against the sportsbook’s predetermined points handicap or spread.
Often, alongside a team’s win loss record, many statistical analysts will also give an ATS record. This is seen as a way to gauge whether a team has outperformed expectations or alternatively under performed them. Assuming the bookmakers points spread line is an accurate estimate of expectation, then if a team consistently beats that line it would seem logical to think they are outperforming.
Here is an example from a recent NFL season. It is the Cincinnati Bengals win/loss record compared to their ATS record:
| Team | Win/Loss Record | ATS Record |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 – 10 | 9 – 7 |
In this example the Bengals had a losing season but ATS they performed quite well, covering the line 56.2% of the time. A sports bettor wagering on 50/50 bets at -110 odds needs to win at 52.5% of the time to break even. Assuming they bet the same stake ATS on each occasion the bettor would have returned just short of 4% on their money betting on the Bengals across the course of the season.
Of course finding odds slightly better than -110 means the bettor could conceivably increase that profit by a few percent.
As can be seen here a positive ATS record doesn’t mean a team is winning outright all the time. It simply means they are performing better than the handicap suggests. They may in fact lose the majority of the time, but perform well ATS. Sophisticated sports bettors love finding these gems and betting on them each week. Often those teams slip under the radar of occasional bettors because the illusion created by them losing outright makes it harder to see how a winning bet could be placed on them. This right here is the art of betting ATS.
Finding a team that outperforms expectations is the ticket to being profitable against the spread.
The Hook and The Push
The half point (or hook) offered by a sportsbook, for instance in the above Bears/Packers example where the line was +/- 3.5, means that there is no way the bet will end in a tie. In points spread betting lingo a tie is known as a ‘push’. This term comes from the casino table game blackjack, where if the dealer and player both have the same score, all bets are returned to the player.
The same goes for the points spread. On the occasions where a sportsbook doesn’t offer a half point it is possible for the margin of victory to be exactly the same as the line offered. In this case it is a ‘push’ and all bets are refunded. While this may be a passable result for a bettor it is no good for a sportsbook. Books profit by taking a small percentage of the handle (vigorish or vig) and then paying the rest out to the winning side of the bet. If the game is a push they must return all bets including their vig.
This is why the half point is so critical in point spread betting. As a bettor if you can get the same odds on the spread but gain an extra half point compared to what is on offer at another book, then it is in your very best interests to grab that half point with both hands. Any bettor that bets ATS for a period of time will develop a long record of half point wins and losses. This emphasises the advantage of gaining that extra bit of insurance.
Point Spread Significant Number
A significant number is a term used by many seasoned sports bettors when talking about the points spread. The significant number relates to the scoring patterns of a particular sport. For example in the NFL, scoring most regularly happens in field goals (3 points) or touchdowns (7) points. Therefore there are a couple of key thresholds that bettors look for when betting ATS in the NFL.
In the above Bears/Packers example the +/- 3.5 line is critically in favor of the Packers. Essentially this extra half point takes the line out over 3 points and means the Packers can lose by a field goal and still win against the spread.
Likewise the below example highlights the importance of a significant number.
In the Cowboys/Giants game the point spread line is set at +/-7.5. This is significant because the half point pushes the line out past a touchdown or 7 points and favors the Giants. Essentially it becomes a two score spread as Dallas would have to win by more than one score to cover the spread. Of course a touchdown with a two point conversion is 8 points but unlikely that a team would go for two when they have scored the go ahead TD.
That half point when the line is 7.5 is far more significant than at, say, 5.5 points. At 5.5 points the half point has less importance when scoring typically happens in multiples of 3s and 7s. At 7.5 the hook has an enormous role to play.
In the Saints and Texans game the point spread is at exactly 7. Although books like to steer clear of the ‘no hook’ number to prevent a push, in this case the weight of money has moved the line from its original +/-7.5 to 7. This number is significant and increases the likelihood of a push and the movement shows that bettors like the Texans with the extra half point. To move the line further to +/-6.5 would take serious money. If the sportsbooks did make this move then it would be conceivable to think that money would flow for the Saints at -6.5 as they can then cover by winning by a single touchdown.
As a point spread hovers around those significant numbers any small movement in the line can spark big changes in the direction the wagered money is flowing.
The Patriots Steelers game in our above example is not close to a significant number although some would argue its a two field goal difference and that may be important. While you could come up with many permutations that would result in a 6 point margin, in reality it is not a multiple of 3 or 7 and therefore it carries less significance in NFL betting. What the 6 points does do here is ensure that to cover the Patriots are going to have to win by a touchdown. The field goal becomes less of a factor.
The Back Door Cover
This is a common saying sports bettors use when the team they have wagered on scores late points to cover the spread but those points have no bearing on the outright result at all. For instance a team may be a 6.5 point underdog. With seconds left in the game they are trailing 27 – 14 and have zero chance of winning outright.
On the last play of the game their receiver connects with a 25 yard pass and strolls in for a touchdown. At this point both sides are aware the touchdown will have little bearing on the final result and on field celebrations are muted. The underdog bettor however is most likely up off the couch punching out a victory dance. A seemingly unimportant play has delivered them a winning bet. This unlikely result is a ‘back door cover’. On the flip side the favorite bettors would consider this a ‘bad beat’.
If you join any online sports betting forum you will hear war story after war story of these types of wins and losses. The thing to understand here is that cliffhanger results are what betting against the spread is all about. The equalizer market is doing its job if the game situation is hovering around the points spread line at the death. As hard as it is, take a bad beat with a grain of salt and likewise if you get lucky with a back door cover be grateful for the win but remain cautious. There will be plenty more twists and turns ahead!
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Half and Quarter Point Spreads
On all major US sports, but in particular the NFL and NBA, all online sportsbooks offer half and quarter spreads. These are played in exactly the same way but reduce the time frame to just that chosen period. Obviously if you are betting a second half or a 2nd, 3rd of 4th quarter some game information is available to you to help inform you of the possible outcome. A smaller time frame will also reduce the size of the handicap.
Point Spread Live Betting
Live betting is set to grow exponentially in the US mobile sports betting market. The live points spread will grab a huge slice of that action. As the game unfolds the live handicap will change dramatically, particularly after a team scores points.
In the NBA the live point spread odds may show great variation if a team goes on a points scoring run or if a player is injured and out of the game.
In the NFL the points spread line will fluctuate most after turnovers or points, particularly touchdowns. Often this is a great time to bet against the flow as the NFL is a possession based game a team will receive the ball after conceding points. A quick reply to conceded point is always a possibility.
Like all live betting, watching the odds fluctuate is important for serous bettors who are looking to grab the best handicap number they can. That number may only appear for a matter of seconds.
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Understanding Point Spread Odds
The fact that the point spread attempts to equalize the game means that the odds available should be virtually the same on both sides of the market. Typically this is -110 with mainstream online and mobile sportsbooks. The -110 odds mean that to win $100 a bettor must invest $110. In decimal odds the -110 is equivalent to 1.91.
Therein lies the problem. By their nature bets ATS are coin flip bets. Coin flip bets should be doubling a bettors money. Point spread bets do not. We all understand a sportsbook needs to take some juice and that is reflected in the odds. Instead of +100 bettors only receive the -110.
Like all markets the flow of money over time can change the odds. What often occurs is that the odds remain at or near -110 and the handicap itself changes. If the line is close to a significant number then sometimes instead of making the big leap from say +/-3 to +/-3.5 (in the NFL) the sportsbook may tweak the odds slightly to ensure their liability is the same on both sides of the bet.
This has occurred in the example below where the New York Jets are 3 point favorites and clearly bettors like that number. Therefore the book has adjusted the odds on the Jets to -115 and wound the Bills out to -105. If money continues to come for the Jets then the books may change the line to +/-3.5 and reset the odds to -110.
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Buying Points
Most sportsbooks will allow a bettor to ‘buy points’. This means a bettors can sacrifice some return and accept shorter odds but in return receive more points according to the handicap. In the case of the favorite the points given away are less in the case of the underdog the points received are increased.
For example in the Jets Bills example above a bettor may wish to buy a half point on the Jets and bring the handicap in to -2.5. Because this is a significant number it could mean the odds might change from -115 to -130. Less return but some insurance for the bettor. The amount the odds change ‘costs’ when buying points, varies from bookmaker to bookmaker, and of course where the line was originally already set has a large bearing on the price change.
How often Do You Have to Win Against The Spread to Be Profitable?
The break even point is something you must know as a sports bettor. When betting point spread markets the break even threshold is seemingly not that high. The thing is attaining it consistently is extremely difficult.
At the most common point spread odds of -110 you need to win 52.38% of the time to break even. Anything above that becomes your profit. Now 52.38% is higher than 1 in every 2 bets and the point spread is a 50/50 or coin flip market. You don’t need to be Einstein to work out that being profitable means you have to be better than the laws of probability will grant you. Therefore skill is part of the game for any profitable handicap bettor.
If the odds you accept are less favorable then you’re win rate needs to be higher. If they are more favorable then the win rate can be lower. Here is a table showing the break even threshold for various point spread odds.
| ODDS (American) | ODDS (Decimal) | BREAK EVEN WIN RATE |
| +100/-100 | 2.00 | 50% |
| -105 | 1.95 | 51.22% |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.38% |
| -115 | 1.87 | 53.49% |
| -120 | 1.83 | 54.55% |
This table clearly identifies the importance of getting the best odds you can. It may be easy for a bettor to accept -115 instead of looking around for -110. At that price you need from win 1% more often just to remain at break even. 1% may seem like a small amount but over time it makes an enormous difference to bettors bankroll.
The same goes for buying points. The extra buffer gained through buying a half point, or in the case of the NBA several points, is countered by the reduced odds. As a bettor you need to weigh up if the extra points will improve your win rate by more than 1 or 2 percent. Otherwise there really is no point in the exercise.
Shopping Around For the Best Number
Point spread betting is a difficult art. There is real advantage in having access to accounts at multiple sportsbooks in order to shop around for the best price or indeed points handicap (or both). There are discrepancies in spreads across books and while these do tend to even out closer to the start of a game they do exist. Most often right when markets are posted and during the cut and thrust of the week discrepancies will appear if only for a short time. .
Sometimes (more than you would think) sportsbooks will ‘test’ their numbers and when posting them and react very quickly to make adjustments as the early sharp money rolls in. Over the course of the week, the intel collected from the flow of money, tends to make the markets quite efficient. Of course injuries, weather conditions or other uncontrollable factors can have sudden impacts on the handicap line. Astute bettors will see this and pounce on those books that are slow to react to the new information.
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Betting Parlays With The Point Spread.
Parlays are an attractive bet style for the fun, entertainment and possible big returns they offer. The often misunderstood fact however is that combining several point spread bets into a parlay is mathematically a terrible choice. Never bet multiple point spread bets in the one parlay.
As bettors we have grown to accept that sportsbooks need to take some juice and therefore -105 or -110 odds offered on the point spread are fair enough. This becomes a far greater issue when that edge or juice is multiplied.
Parlay bets work by multiplying the decimal odds of each leg to give total parlay odds. Remembering that point spread bets are 50/50 bets but the odds offered are not +100 (true odds) but -110. A three leg parlay involving all spread bets would have true odds of +700. That is:
+100 (2.00) x +100 (2.00) x +100 (2.00) = +700 (8.00)
The reality is as follows:
-110 (1.91) x -110 (1.91) x -110 (1.91) = +597 (6.97)
Parlay odds are now well short of where the true odds would be.
The upshot of this is as a bettor you simply sacrifice value if you want to parlay point spread bets.
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Sport Specific Examples of Point Spread Markets
Football Point Spread
While this article has dealt heavily with the football points spread already, it is worthwhile taking a look at this college football example. The above graphic shows how the more one sided nature of college games is reflected in the points spread. Michigan State are a 21.5 point favorite over Tulsa. The other two games also include double digit favorites.
These lop-sided encounters ensure that by far the most popular style of betting in college football is the point spread. For example it is hard to imagine Tulsa beating powerhouses Michigan State outright (although upsets like this do happen in college sports) even on their home turf, but it is conceivable to think they will be up for the fight and could keep the margin below the 21.5 lie set by the books.
Basketball Point Spread
Basketball point spread betting is similar in many ways to football with some subtle differences. For instance, there really are not many significant numbers in basketball. Although scoring occurs in multiples of 1, 2 or 3, the high scoring nature of the sport means that over time there is huge variation in actual margins reducing the importance of a significant number.
As you can see in the above example from the Euro League, basketball spreads can range from just one basket to multiple baskets. The question for a bettor comes down to whether a team will blow the other one out or the contest will remain tight to the buzzer. Basketball is one of those sports where shopping around for extra points is worth your while as there are sometimes 2 to 3 point differences in points spread between books. These do tend to even out quickly but if you see a gap like that it is worth jumping on.
Baseball Point Spread
The Baseball point spread is almost always set at +/- 1.5 runs. The odds vary to reflect the evenness or otherwise of the teams. The favored team is always installed at -1.5 and as a result their odds can actually blow out to plus money. On the flipside the underdog will be installed at +1.5 and their odds may become minus even though they are not favored to win outright.
Something to be aware of is the home team always bats last. If the game is tied in the bottom of the 9th they only need to bat in one run to win and the game is over. In this case they will not cover the -1.5. Unless of course a walk off homer is hit with runners on base.
Soccer and Hockey Point Spread
Soccer and Hockey use the point spread or handicap markets in a slightly different way. Due to the relatively low scoring nature of the games it is difficult to frame up markets where the spread is much more than a goal or two. As a result the point spread is generally very static and the odds fluctuate to reflect the evenness or otherwise of the match.
As can be seen in the above example the +/- 1 goal spread has a huge variation in odds away from the traditional -110 seen in other sports. Sportsbooks will frame up odds for both teams at the -1 and +1. They will also offer odds for one team at -2 and the other at +2.
Where soccer is concerned the draw or tie is also added to the spread market which makes it a three way market instead of a coin toss. Hockey typically does not have draws as the game will go to overtime. If it results in a shootout then the winning team will be deemed to have won by one point/goal.
Note: The spread in Hockey is sometimes referred to as the ‘puck line’.
The Game Starts Now!
Points Spread betting is a true staple of any sports bettor. To succeed it is necessary to understand the nuances of the betting style, how the odds matter, and the push and pull factors that can influence movements in the line. The best way to learn is to be part of the action. Before you place a bet do me one favor, buckle up your seat belt, because point spread betting is one heck of a ride!
