Betting half game markets seems pretty straight forward. But there are enormous differences between betting first half and second half markets. Getting your head around the nuances of both is the ticket to becoming profitable on that bet type.
Lets take a look at how you can improve your second half betting game.
What is a Second half Market: A bet type that allows a bettor to wager on the outcome of the second half of a particular event. It includes variations of the traditional Moneyline, Point Spread, Totals and Prop Bets. Second half markets are popular because the first half is used as a real time form guide to second half betting.
How is Second Half Betting Different to First Half Betting?
First and Second half betting are two very different beasts! First half betting is entirely a pregame market where prices are based on previous results. They can be bet well in advance of the event starting and are used as an alternative to regular time marktes.
Second Half markets are essentially a pseudo live betting play. Bettors have available to them real time information such as current scoreline, momentum of play, updated injury information, a grasp on game day weather and its impact as well as a chance to apply betting intuition based on what they have seen unfold in the first half.
Of course sportsbooks are also armed with this same information and as a result bettors and bookies do play a game of cat and mouse when it comes to making second half plays.
What Second Half Bet Types are Available?
There are many bet types available to bettors for second half action and these can vary depending on the sportsbook you choose to use. Here are the most common:
| Second Half Bet Type | Conditions |
| Moneyline | This pays on the team that wins the second half outright. Regardless of the half time scoreline it simply assumes both teams enter the second half level and the team that scores the most points wins. Very simple but challenging to consistently pick. |
| Point Spread | Much like the regular time point spread the book will set handicap line (eg. +/- 3.5) for the second half and bets are placed on the whether the team will cover. The handicap only pertains to second half scoring. Odds are typically in the vicinity of -110). |
| Totals (Over/Under) | The bettor picks whether the second half scoring will be higher or lower than line set by the sportsbook. (eg 23.5 points). Very difficult to succeed long term as odds of -110 are often hard to find on this market. |
Do Second Half Bets Include Overtime?
The simple answer is yes. If you are betting any second half market you need to factor in the chance of overtime. Obviously this will decide the moneyline market unless the game is still tied after overtime as can be the case in the NFL. At that point the dead heat rule will be applied and the bettor will receive half the original odds.
Overtime has significant ramifications for both the second half point spread and it certainly favors the over in second half totals. Just something to keep in mind.
Interestingly overtime does not count for quarters markets for instance in the NBA. A fourth quarter total bet will not include overtime but a second half bet on the same game does include OT. A loss caused by overtime is certainly bad luck but all par for the course when it comes to second half betting.
Second Half Betting Strategies
1. Bet What You Know
As second half markets are not offered pregame they certainly require bettors to have some knowledge of the flow of a particular game. They really are a pure betting market less affected by algorithms and moddelling. For example if you have a good knowledge of the game of basketball generally (you are a student of the game) then conceivably you are able to pick up on some in game nuance and apply that to your interpretation of second half markets. Its a form of betting intuition if you like. Perhaps it allows you to pick up on potential momentum shifts prior to the that being reflected in the odds.
The Take Home: There is power in sticking to betting what you know. Be selective about where you wager your money on second half markets. The more you become familiar with a sport the more you will see opportunities that the odds have yet to account for.
2. Grabbing a Middle
Second half markets provide a useful complement to regular time markets. As an example a bettor may have taken a regular season NBA game Total of Over 215 points. The first half proves to be a shootout with the teams locked at 57 – 57 at the half. The live total has pushed out to 228 points and as a result the second half total has been posted at 114.
The bettor can now effectively hedge or middle the total by taking the under on the second half total of 114 knowing that they only need 101 points to cash on their original bet and anything under 114 will cash on the second half bet. A return is virtually assured. The ‘middle’ is the 13 point gap where both bets will cash.
The same theory can be applied to point spread betting.
The Take Home: The second half market is one to keep in mind for all regular time bettors. If things go well in the first half an opportunity to lock in some profit is presented in the second half markets.
3. The Poor Reflection Scoreline
There are many times when watching sports a team may be dominating many aspects of the game but not yet show dominance on the scoreboard. When that team is the pregame underdog very often the odds do not reflect this perceived dominance because they are too closely tied to the pregame expectations.
An example would be in a closely fought first half of an NFL game. The pre game favorite may have had a few calls or benefitted from the bounce of the ball to remain in the game. Many times bettors (and the books) will overlook these fortunate events as the team was favored to win at the outset and so the scoreline is in line with expectations yet from your perspective is actually not a true reflection of the two teams. This is opportunity knocking as the underdog will no doubt be at decent odds in second half betting.
The Take Home: Second half betting gives the bettor a chance to back themselves and their judgement and wager on the unrewarded dominance of an underdog that has yet to come through on the scoreboard. It’s a gutsy move that will not be popular but if correct the payout is worth it. Look for some key statistical indicators which may back up your gut feel.
4. The Effect of Injury
In game injury to key players is one of the weak points for sportsbook when it comes to second half betting. Often an injury to a key player is over stated in the odds, other times it is understated, The determining factor: the profile of the player injured.
Injuries to big name players, well known to the public move in game odds and change second half markets. More often than not the effect of that player on the outcome of the game is overstated. In the world of professional sports, media tends to get carried away with ‘superhero’ status of some players. There are often the offensive weapons.
Overreactions smell like opportunity for switched on bettors.
Where you can really cash in is on underrated yet pivotal player, usually on the defensive end of the court who leaves the game with minimal fanfare yet has a major effect on the outcome.
Why? Well it’s quite simple.
The underrated defensive player often has the thankless job of closing down an opposition key weapon. Their almost unnoticed departure from the game can serve to unleash the opponents scoring weapon and the momentum of the game shifts, not because the superstar engaged superhero mode but the more sensible reason of a down in the dirt hardworking pro left the game making life much easier.
The Take Home: Know the role players have in the game plan of a particular team. Just because they are not talked about doesn’t mean they are crucial. Injury can change games, just sometimes its in less predictable ways. Overreaction and/or under reaction to the market is a second half bettors friend.
5. The Bigger Picture
Professional sports are very much about next week. When betting second halves its worth knowing where this game fits within the context of a season. Teams with aspiration of a deep playoff run may ‘switch off’ in a second half as they eye next week. This can change the way scoring patterns occur when compared to the first half.
For example a dominant team may blow out an opponent in the first half but in the second half manage the clock and their player workload all with an eye on next week. This could mean a first half total that flew over may be much lower in the second half.
Another example could be in ‘do or die’ must win match ups. If one team has earned a useful lead (eg two score lead) in an otherwise low scoring game then potential opportunity knocks. The losing team has no option than throw caution to the wind in the second half in an attempt to score. The net result may be increased scoring at both ends. Aggressive play can also leave teams vulnerable defensively. It makes sense.
The Take Home: Stay tuned to the bigger picture when betting second halves. The next period of play may represent different priorities for different teams and that can affect game style and scoring.
.
The Game Starts Now!
Second half betting is something all serious bettors should investigate. While it may not be your every game bet type it is a useful string to add to your betting bow. Keep your eyes peeled for second half betting opportunities.
Good luck and as always gamble responsibly!
