Australian Rules Football is a unique, fast paced and exhilarating sport adored by millions in the land Down Under. There are few sports like it. It is a full contact, at times brutal, highly athletic code of football that simply has to be seen to be believed. Even then, you may not believe what you are seeing. It really is an national obsession in Australia. If you don’t already, you need to be betting on Ausralian Football!
Why Bet on Australian Rules Football? Betting on Australian Rules Football is not new, just new in the US. Fanduel, Draftkings and Pointsbet sportsbooks offer Moneyline, Points Spread, Margin, Total Points Over/Under and numerous prop bets on the sport. Games are played overnight and early morning US time providing high quality after hours betting options.
What is this Game? Australian Football Basics.
Before you do anything, check out this video for a full rundown on how the game is played:
The Context
Firstly Australian Rules Football is not Rugby. It doesn’t resemble Rugby and it is arguably many times more entertaining than Rugby. Attendance figures and TV ratings Down under are proof of this. The game has the fourth highest attendance of any domestic sports league in the world. It is a game indigenous to Australia, purpose built for a sports mad public.
At the professional level in Australia it is played under the banner of The Australian Football League (AFL). The league consists of 18 teams playing each other over a 23 week regular season and a 4 week finals series (playoffs). The season culminates in a Grand Final, the sport’s version of the Superbowl, in front of 100 thousand fans at the historic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).
Each week from April to September, 9 matches are played, spanning Thursday to Sunday. Providing online sports bettors with a plethora of options to make some winning bets.
The Basic Rules
The game is played on an oval shaped field, with two teams of 18 players. The teams attempt to kick goals (worth 6 points) between the tall goal posts. If they miss to the left or right of the tall posts, through the smaller posts, they receive 1 point, called a ‘behind’. Players move the ball around the field by kicking (sometimes up to 70 yards) and handpassing, where the ball meets the fist similar to a volleyball underarm serve. A player in possession of the ball is allowed to be tackled by an opposition player in attempt to turnover possession.
A typical scoreline would look like the following:
| Goals | Behinds | Total Score | |
| West Coast Eagles | 11 | 13 | 79 |
| Collingwood Magpies | 11 | 8 | 74 |
In this case the West Coast Eagles won the game 79 – 74. A margin of 5 points which is just less than a goal. A close and exciting contest which went down to the last second.
The Popular Australian Football Betting Markets
The following example will be used to explain these markets.
Sydney Swans V Essendon Bombers (Sydney Cricket Ground)
| Market | Sydney Swans | Essendon Bombers | |
| Head to Head | +150 | -205 | |
| Margin (Big Win, Little Win) | 1 – 39 Points | +200 | +105 |
| 40+ Points | +1200 | +350 | |
| Draw | +6000 | ||
| Line +/- 11.5 | +11.5 Points-112 | -11.5 Points-112 | |
| Total Game Points | Under 163.5 | Over 163.5 | |
| -112 | -112 |
Note: In Australian sports the home team is listed first.
Head to Head (Moneyline)
The Head to Head market works exactly like the moneyline market in US sports. Bettors wager on the team they believe will win the match outright regardless of the margin of victory. As Australian Rules Football is a running game it can have wild swings in momentum during the match. The moneyline can throw up some real value for astute bettors.
In the above example the home team, Sydney Swans are taking on interstate rival the Essendon Bombers. The Swans are starting a significant underdog at +150. This means a $100 bet on the swans at this price would return a profit of $150 and a total payout of $250. The Essendon Bombers are strong favorites at -205. While plenty of money will come for the Bombers a contrarian bet on the home underdog has value.
Interestingly the Australian Football League does not play overtime during the regular season and therefore the dead heat rule applies in the case of tied scores. This means instead of a refund the sportsbooks will pay out half the odds. A bet on Sydney would return $125 from a $100 bet meaning there is a small profit. A $100 bet on Essendon would return just $74, not amazing but better than a complete wipe out.
The Take Away: The AFL has an equalisation policy using drafts and salary caps to keep the competition even. This leads to unpredictable results. Lean towards a home underdog in moneyline betting. Don’t be afraid to go after them!
For an outrageously good take on how to bet the Aussie Rules Moneyline you must read our article here
Big Win, Little Win (Margin)
Margin betting in the AFL is hugely popular. Due to the regularity of scoring, margins can range from thrilling one point wins through to 10 plus goal blowouts. AFL bettors often refer to margins in terms of how many goals difference between the teams even if the number is not exact. For example a 17 point win could be referred to as a 3 goal win even though 3 goals is actually 18 points.
In the ‘big win, little win’ market, the margin is set at 1-39 points or 40+. These brackets never change but the odds fluctuate depending on the strength of the opponents. A 40 point win is essentially 7 goals and that reflects quite a dominant performance. Ie nearly two goals better per quarter on average. The 1-39 point bracket reflects, as the name suggests, a much closer contest. 30+ points win doesn’t seem close but due to the running nature of the game score lines can blow out late when one team stops running.
In the above example the 1-39 margin for either team are the favored results as the game is expected to be close. There are some juicy odds for the 40+ markets which can and do win quite regularly. The draw is an option due to the lack of overtime. Draws happen just less than 1% of the time so +6000 for the draw really should be more like +9900.
Another common margin bracket is 1-24 and 24+. This becomes popular in games perceived to be close. The 24 points represents a four goal win which average out to a goal better per quarter.
The Take Away: In games that appear close according to moneyline you will always find more value betting the 1-39 small win market.
Line (Point Spread)
Line betting is exactly like the handicap or point spread betting in sports like the NFL or NBA. A favored team will give away points while an underdog will be given points in an effort to even the odds up on both sides of the market. In the above example the favorite, Essendon Bombers, are giving away an 11.5 point start meaning they would have to win by 12 points or more for the bet to land. A bettor would say they need to win by two goals, when in actual fact they just mean a margin equivalent to two goals (12 points) which could be made up of any combination of scoring. Eg 1 goal 6 behinds.
Due to the two types of scoring (goals 6 points and behinds 1 point) and the regularity that teams hit the scoreboard, there really aren’t any significant point spread numbers like there are in other sports. A goal is worth 6 points but a margin is just as likely to be 7 as it is 6. A handicap of -6.5, while clearly being more than one straight goal, is not enough of a difference to see a flood of betting. Teams will drift or come in by a few points here or there regularly in the lead up to the start of a game.
Sportsbooks will always include the half point in the line betting as there is no real need to have the risk of a push with such high scoring. In the above example the sportsbooks are taking a little bit extra juice on these line bets. To be frank, the odds should be more like -110 instead of -112 (about 1% difference) as those prices are available throughout Australia on a daily basis.
The Take Away: Average scores have been steadily dropping in the AFL over the last decade as teams work out better methods of zone defence and full field presses. Look for teams getting solid plus points on the spread. Always some value there!
Total Game Points
The total game points over and under is fairly self explanatory. A bettor wagers on whether the score of both teams combined will add up to more or less than the total set by the sportsbook. In the above example the total points over/under had been set at 163.5. This is quite low considering the average over the last two decades is about 180. Wet weather can have an effect on points totals, keeping them lower. This is because slippery conditions make it harder to move the ball around the field efficiently.
The total points market is essentially a coin flip. If you are looking for a bet type that will be alive throughout the game then this one’s for you. Be warned consistent profitability from this bet type is difficult unless the bettor is well informed on a whole variety or variables.
The Take Away: A difficult market to pick at the best of times. Even the best tipsters find this market inconsistent. Stay away unless you are just looking for some fun.
Disposals Markets
The disposals markets are essentially player prop markets. In some ways it is comparable to the individual points markets offered in the NBA. In Australian Football a disposal is either a handball or a kick. Players who gain large disposal counts (ball winners) often play in the midfield where much of the play passes through. 30 plus disposals per game is a common amount for the real ball winners. Teams will ‘tag’ the opponents major ball winners to nullify their impact on the game. This usually reduces the number of possessions they gather.
These markets are fun to have action on as a high ball winner will gather possessions (disposals) throughout the game and their disposal count can be followed live on numerous sites and apps. This betting market ties in closely with the AFL fantasy markets which are also very popular.
The Take Away: Look to be a contrarian. Disposals markets tends to favor the big names and their odds are always short. Opposition teams will tag them so look for an over/under market and take the unders.
Popular Futures Markets
Premiership Winner
The team that goes on to win the Grand Final, AFL’s superbowl equivalent, is called the premier (as opposed to the champions). Therefore winning the whole competition is called ‘winning the premiership’. The premiership is sometimes referred to a ‘the flag’ as the team that wins receives a giant premiership flag.
Like all good futures bet this market is popular with recreational and professional bettors alike. As the AFL use a draft system similar to the NFL the seasons from year to year are very close. An argument could be made for several of the teams to go on and win the premiership. It is a market worth having a look at if you love finding value.
Brownlow Medal
The Brownlow medal is awarded to the player best and fairest player in the AFL each year. It is the AFL’s equivalent of an MVP. While this is a specialised market, betting is taken on the market throughout the year. The more a bettor gets into the sport the more this market becomes relevant and exciting.
Throughout the season the best three players on the field are awarded a 3, 2 or 1 point to go towards their brownlow count. The decision on who gets awarded the points is left to the umpires. It is clear that some players are the darling of the umpires and poll votes even when other players probably deserved them more.
The Take Away: The Brownlow Medal Count is a sensational betting market for people who have become avid follows of the sport. The more a bettor gets into the sport the more this market becomes relevant and exciting. Watch for a while then jump into once you’re ready.
Coleman Medal
The ‘Coleman’ is a medal awarded to the player who kicks the most goals in the AFL each year. Goal kickers are high profile excitement machines who draw huge crowds to games on their own right. This market behaves like a horse race, just one that takes 23 weeks to conclude!. As the season unfolds the favorite can falter and be run down by the players coming second or third. It is a fun market to be part of as a recreational bettor.
The Take Away: After each week of games this market is reframed. It is never too late to find some value and jump on!
The Advantage of the Timezone
One of the most underrated features of betting on Australian Football is that the Aussie time zone difference lands these games in a perfect dead spot for US bettors. Games range from around midnight eastern through until around 7am eastern. Many of the games appear on cable sports channels as well. This makes them prime for night owls who like to bet, or more sophisticated bettors who are looking to increase their turnover.
If you haven’t experienced the benefits of an overnight wager then this sport is one of the best ways to get into it.
The Take Away: Why not try an overnight parlay that links together two or three head to head (moneyline) bets. That way you can have a small stake and load into some great value odds.
The Game Starts Now!
This sport will grow in popularity with US sportsbooks. Fanduel, DraftKings and PointsBet are on board in a big way already. Get yourself a new hobby and become an Australian Football bettor. You won’t regret you did!
Good luck and as always bet responsibly!
