Australia’s National Rugby League, or NRL as it is more commonly known, is a fast paced, high impact, adrenaline charged sport that is primed for sports bettors to sink their teeth into.
If you love big hits, miracle plays, close games and no pads, then this sport may just be the one you have been looking for!
The NRL hits US TV screens via Fox Sports every weekend and markets are readily available across all US sportsbooks. If you live internationally then fear not, the NRL is listed with reputable sportsbooks across the globe!
In the next five minutes you will not only understand the five key betting markets, but how to bet them to supercharge your chances of success!
What is the NRL?
The National Rugby League is the world’s premier professional rugby league competition. It is played across Australia and New Zealand from March to October. It includes 16 teams who play each other across 25 rounds. At the end of the season the top 8 placed teams in the standings play in a playoff series much like the National Football League (NFL).
The biggest game of the NRL is season is the NRL’s version of the Super Bowl – The Grand Final!
Let me tell you, if you love the NFL you will love the NRL
Here is a taste of what the NRL provides:
How Does the Game Work?
Rugby League and more simply the NRL is very straight forward.
- 13 Players per side
- 80 minutes broken into two 40 minute halves
- Teams get a set of six tackles. At the end of a set of six they must kick (punt) or turn the ball over if they are tackled.
- A tackle is called when a player’s momentum is stopped or if the ball carrying arm touches the ground.
Scoring:
| Method of Scoring | Points Value | What is it? |
| Try | 4 Points | Much like a touchown. The ball must be placed over the tryline (goalline) with downward pressure. |
| Conversion | 2 points | Like the point after attempt in the NFL. A shot at goal taken by the kicker. Key difference: taken from in line with the spot of the try. |
| Penalty Goal | 2 Points | A kick at goal taken from the point of the foul. A missed penalty kick is play on. |
| Field Goal | 1 Point | A drop kick shot at goal taken during general play. Must go between the posts. Used break the deadlock. Common during golden point overtime. |
Note: If scores are level at the end of regulation time. Teams play an additional 10 mins of extra time under the golden point rule. This means if a team scores at any time the game is over.
The Five Key NRL Betting Markets
NRL games are statistically rich and therefore in any one game you will be able to find hundreds of markets (potentially thousands) including a mouth watering number of prop bets. There are however 5 essential markets you need to know about.
Moneyline (Head to Head)
The moneyline market or head to head as it is commonly known by NRL bettors simply deals with the outright winner of the game. The odds are adjusted to reflect a teams chances of winning the game.
This is a popular market and huge volumes of money are bet on it weekly. The odds will fluctuate based on player injuries, current form, home V road team record, weather and sometimes for no apparent reason at all!
A typical set of moneyline odds may look like this:
| Team | Odds (American) | Odds (Decimal) |
| Brisbane Broncos | +125 | 2.25 |
| Sydney Roosters | -155 | 1.65 |
In the above example the home team listed first (that is just how its done). As you can see the Sydney Roosters are favorites but still offering a 65% profit on your stake should they win.
Instant Expert Tip: The NRL is famous for its huge momentum shifts and turnarounds. Rugby league is a brutal sport. It is very physical in nature. Sports this physical are prone to upsets. Defensively a team only needs to be a few percent off their game and they will be run over.
Add to that the fact the sport is governed by a salary cap and you can expect an even competition. As a rule barring perhaps the top two teams the rest of the competition hovers between 40% and 65% win loss record. This is fertile ground for upsets. Don’t be afraid to chase an underdog if you feel good about their chances!
The Point Spread (The Line)
The NRL point spread, or line betting as it is known by the locals, works very much the same as the NFL point spread. The key difference being that as scoring is slightly different then so wil be the key numbers a bettor looks for when betting the line.
Here is an example:
| Team | Point Spread Handicap (Line) | Odds (American) | Odds (Decimal) |
| Brisbane Broncos | +4.5 | -110 | 1.91 |
| Sydney Roosters | -4.5 | -110 | 1.91 |
In the above example the Broncos are the underdog and are being given 4.5 points. This means if they were to lose the game by 4 or less points (or just win outright) the bet still pays. In the case of the Roosters they not only need to win the game outright but they need to win by 5 or more points.
The line of 4.5 is a key number as it represents the threshold between an unconverted and a converted try. In this case the hook (half point favors the underdog). If the line was at 3.5 this would represent a difference more significant than just one point.
Here are some NRL point spread key numbers
| Key Number | Scoring Method Equivalent | Why? |
| 1 | Field Goal | A field goal is the most common way to break the deadlock late in a game or during golden point extra time. If you can grab +1.5 on a team that can see you cash even though you lost in golden point. |
| 2 | Penalty Goal | Late in a game a penalty goal attempt is often used to break a deadlock. Earlier in the game teams are more likely to forgo the shot and take an extra set of six tackles to look for a try. |
| 4 | Unconverted Try | Unlike the NFL converting extra points (converted try) is no gimme. Players take the shot from in line with the spot the ball was placed. This means they may be kicking from a difficult angle out wide. The variance here makes 4 a key number. |
| 6 | Converted Try | Speaks for itself. This is the highest points value that can be scored in a single play. A try with a successful conversion attempt made. |
| 7 | Converted Try plus Field goal | The ‘insurance’ field goal is an often used tactic by teams attempting to ice a game. |
| 8 | Variety of scoring methods | This is a common margin of victory |
| 10 | Variety of scoring methods | This is a common margin of victory |
| 12 | Two Converted tries | A reasonably solid win. |
| Multiples of 6 | Equivalent converted tries | Makes sense. Teams that win well score in 6s. |
Instant Expert Tip: Just like point spread betting in other sports, this market is prone to all the usual variables. Look for the best number by comparing against multiple books. An extra few points can make a big difference.
As a side note wet weather or a dewy night can affect ball handling and make player change of direction more difficult. This can dampen (pun intended) scoring but beware: the books have the weather app too!
Margin Betting
I have to say this is a super fun and cut throat type of betting that is just made for the NRL!
By far the most common form of margin betting is the 1 – 12 and 13+ margin brackets. It could look something like this.
| Team | 1 – 12 | 13+ |
| Brisbane Broncos | +190 (2.90) | +375 (4.75) |
| Sydney Roosters | -115 (1.85) | +210 (3.10) |
| Draw (Tie) *scores must be level after the 10 extra minutes of golden point | +2500 (26.00) |
As can be seen in the above example brackets are offered on winning margins. If the books expect a close game then the favored margin will be the favorite winning by between 1 and 12 points. 12 points is included in this margin.
As a result the other margins are at longer odds. In this example the Broncos were +4.5 points so the next closest margin bracket in odds is them winning by 1-12 points but as expected those odds begin to become quite juicy.
13 plus point margins do happen and more often than you may think. Junk time points or late tries are often the thing that delivers the backdoor win or the heartbreaking loss for bettors. You certainly need a good ticker to bet this market.
It is important to note that golden point extra time is factored into this market and thus if a game goes to golden point and a winner is found, by nature that will pay out the 1 -12 margin of the winning team.
The draw or tie is a thing so the dead heat rule will not be in play.
Instant Expert Tip: If you are sensing an upset then look to the margin betting market to boost your odds. For example if you believe the underdog will win in a close game you can often grab an extra multiple on the odds by taking the 1-12 win instead of the moneyline. Just be careful. There is nothing more heartbreaking than sniffing out a lucrative upset, jumping on the 1-12 margin only to see your team blow the favorite off the park and have your margin bet bust!
First Try Scorer
This market is super popular but a nightmare to pick. In the NRL just like the NFL there are players who are in the team to score trys. These players like wingers, centres and fullbacks, are attacking weapons and sportsbook will price them up accordingly. The thing is, unlike the NFL, all thirteen players can and will handle the ball throughout the game. They can all score trys!
Well known try scorers may have odds to score the first try between +800 (9.00) through to about +1200 (13.00). Other players odds will range out from there with bench forwards being more in the +3300 (34.00) range or higher!
Essentially you have 26 players on the field who can score a try at any time. Good luck picking that! The first try scorer market should be played for fun. There are too many uncontrollable variables that affect the outcome. Despite this it is still popular and often comes with a promo or two. Each to their own guess.
Instant Expert Tip: Sportsbooks will offer juicier odds on players whose primary role is not to score tries however some teams use those players as surprise attacking weapons. Look for back rowers (wearing numbers 11 or 12) who are mobile big guys who can drift around the edges of the ruck and cause damage. Sportsbook will have them priced out at +1600 (17.00) or higher. They are worth a shot if you feel you absolutely have to bet this market.
Parlay Betting (Multi)
Betting a multi (parlay) on the NRL is like a national pastime in Australia. Bettors love to throw a couple of moneyline bets together to multiply their odds. It’s fun and allows bettors to be exposed to a potentially greater payout.
The thing with the NRL that makes it parlay friendly is the only one game is played at a time. There are no conflicting matches so your parlay plays out one leg at a time. This opens up numerous hedging or cash out options should you feel that way inclined.
Just don’t parlay multiple point spread options. The math is not in your favor. A win never pays out what it should!
Instant Expert Tip: If you are betting on the NRL but living in a US timezone (or Europe for that matter) use the parlay as a fun way to boost your account overnight. The Saturday afternoon (Aussie time) games play out Friday night US time. Load up a couple of moneyline bets into a juicy parlay and let them ride while you sleep. When you wake up you can catch the Saturday night games over your Saturday morning breakfast. The overnight parlay….it has merit!
Side Note: Same Game Parlay (Same Game Multi)
The same game parlay is fairly new to the NRL, although the Australian sports betting market is far more mature than the US market and markets like this have been around longer than many people think.
We have a must read article on the same game parlay that explains in detail how to bet it and how not to get burned!
The key here is that you can link together many of the above mentioned markets from the same game and let it ride. The odds are altered to reflect the fact that the outcomes are correlated.
The Game Starts Now!
The NRL is a bettors dream. If you are new to the sport but want to bet on it. Begin with smaller stakes, build a knowledge base then extend yourself back to your usual bet size. The best way to learn is to have some skin in the game!!
