Have you ever placed a bet on a team and early in the match you just know its not going to be their day? You think to yourself, “if you’d known they would start this way you would never have wagered on them.” Well there is a way to overcome this feeling: Bet on the game live. Bet as as the drama unfolds well after kick off.
The sleeping giant of online and mobile sports betting is live betting in-play. This betting style is set to explode, revolutionising the way bettors view games and wager on them.
What is Live Betting? Live Betting is the act of placing a wager on an event after it has begun. As the event unfolds, more information about the potential final outcome is revealed. Bettors use this information to make a decision about where to place their bet. Sportsbooks alter the ‘live odds’ to reflect the momentum of the event.
This bet style is growing in popularity as sportsbooks begin to provide offerings across more sports and a deeper list of markets within each sport. With mobile betting becoming more mainstream, betting live is becoming convenient and practical.
Any mobile sportsbook worth your time will be offering live odds on major sports. Within a few taps you can get your wager on. You have got to love that!
Why Do Live Betting Odds Keep Changing?
Any bettor who has invested time into checking out live betting markets will realise that the odds are in a continual state of flux. This happens as a result of the real time ebb and flow of the event.
For example, let’s imagine the Baltimore Ravens are leading 14 – 10 in the 3rd quarter of a divisional match-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have 1st and 10 on the Steelers’ 25 yard line.
It is conceivable to think their Moneyline live odds would be something like -250 (1.40 decimal odds). Being in field goal range, they are likely to add to their score on this drive. A touchdown would put them two scores in front and make them hard to beat. Many bettors would love this spot and snap up the -250.
Now let’s imagine on the very next play the Ravens running back fumbles the ball and it is recovered by the Steelers. At this point, the live odds would become suspended as the sportsbook quickly re-frames the odds.
Books opt to suspend betting to prevent quick thinking bettors getting bets on now that they have seen the turnover. Betting will only be suspended for a short period of time. When betting reopens it is likely that the Ravens odds would drift out to something like -160 (1.62 decimal).
As any game moves closer to the final quarter, assuming the scoreline remains tight, small moments can change the odds quite dramatically.
Again using the NFL as the example, in game events such as, third down conversions, big yardage plays, intercepts, missed field goals, injuries to key players, muffed punts and so on, all move the odds needle quite significantly.
The key to successful live betting is knowing the types of plays or events in any particular sport that significantly change the odds. For example a break of serve in tennis, a player being fouled out in the NBA, runners in scoring position in the MLB, a power play in the NHL, a penalty in soccer, and the list goes on.
Why Do the Live Betting Odds Change BEFORE Something Happens?
Live Bettting odds seem to change before a match altering event has even occurred, causing frustration for bettors who feel like they always miss the great odds. No matter how good the bookmakers are at your sportsbook they cannot predict the future.
The cause of this nostradamus type activity is the fact the television broadcasts can be on delays of around seven seconds. Sportsbooks have real time information and will see what has happened in a game and suspend betting or alter the odds before the home viewer has been able to see the play.
While the television lag is bad enough, games being watched through streaming services can be delayed by 30 seconds. Depending on the sport, more than one big play could occur in in that time and the great odds will be well gone. Taking the delay into account the only way to truly see a big moment unfold in real time and secure the odds, is to be at the venue in person.
What Bet Types Are Available?
Available Live Betting markets will vary depending on the sport. In general however, the moneyline, handicap betting and some prop bets will be available. These offerings are set to explode as sportsbooks become more accepted within mainstream sporting community.
An example of the innovation that has begun to move through live betting is seen in tennis. At major sportsbooks such as PointsBet, Fanduel, FOXBet and Draftkings all over point by point betting. Yes that’s right, you can literally bet on the outcome of each and every point.
Example Scenarios of Popular Live Betting Markets.
Example 1 – Handicap
The live betting handicap market is well and truly a fan favorite in both the NFL and NBA, but also across the world on sports that are suited to points spread betting. The handicap points on offer are altered as the game unfolds. A bettor who had placed a pre-game bet on a handicap market may be able to find a huge ‘middle’ during the game locking in profit.
Here is an example from the NBA. Imagine a bettor had placed a points spread bet on Toronto Raptors at home against Philadelphia 76ers. Toronto was a 6.5 point favorite, in other words they need to win by 7 or more points for the bet to cash. The bettor jumped on for $100 at the odds of -110 (1.91 decimal). Potential total payout of $191.
During the first half the Raptors were quite dominant and were leading 61 – 46 and seemingly cruising. A quick check of the live betting odds and the bettor now sees the handicap line has moved to -16.5 still at odds of -110. Clearly the first bet is looking quite comfortable. The bettor could sit tight and hope to collect. Alternatively he/she could now wager on the 76ers at +16.5 creating a ‘middle’ of 10 points.
Regardless of the result at least one of the bets will pay returning most of the bettors outlay. If the game was to hit in the 10 point middle then both bets would payout returning a large payout. Essentially the bettor has unlocked a risk free double down on the game. This style might not suit every bettor but it is a way to use live betting to an advantage.
Example 2 – Live Hedge
A live betting hedge is difficult to pull off in sports where the live odds change quickly and often. It can be done quite successfully though in sports where they tend to take more time to change. For example, golf. Let’s look at a live hedging opportunity on the PGA tour.
Let imagine it is the final round of the US Open and a bettor had taken Jon Rahm to win at +2500 pre tournament for $100. Now on the final day, with 8 holes, left Rahm sits 1 shot back from Brooks Koepka but comfortably clear of the rest of the field. Koepka is at -150 (1.66 decimal) to win outright and Rahm is now at +125 (2.25 decimal)
An obvious live betting opportunity has presented itself. The bettor stands to claim a payout of $2600 if Rahm was to run Koepka down and win. If he goes close, but loses the bettor kisses his $100 goodbye. The solution: place a hedge bet on of $160 Brooks Koepka using the live betting market. That way, at his odds of -150 the bettor would return $265. Enough to cover the original bet placed on Rahm without eating up too much of the profit if Rahm was to win.
Golf is a wonderful betting sport. Learn how to do it properly here.
Possible Future Developments
A time will come where major sports may want to share data on player tracking, and ball tracking technology, with sportsbooks in exchange for revenue. The real time data allows books to frame accurate markets on a whole host of in game props, lifting the enjoyment for everyone.
An example couple be accurate ball tracking on the PGA tour which would allow books to offer over/under bets on distance from the pin or length off the tee. The options really are endless.
Can I Bet Live on My Mobile Phone?
Where mobile betting is legalised, betting live on the device is generally allowed. This makes it fast, convenient and accessible. An exception to this is Australia, where government regulation prevents bets being placed live on a mobile device. Instead a phone call must be made to a betting operator.
What makes a great mobile sportsbook? Check out our list of 15 must have feature!
Two Strategies to Win Betting Live on Sports
Like most sports betting, being successful long term betting live is difficult. Here are two strategies which may help a bettor improve their live betting returns.
1. Develop a ‘feel’ for a game
Get to know its nuances so you can predict a momentum change before it happens. This sort of knowledge can take some time to develop so be patient, watch some games and take note of how the odds change before you dive in and start betting live.
2. See Value and Act
As you become more experienced you may see a situation in a game and recognise that the odds on the current live betting underdog are too inflated, representing real value. Then hit those odds and hope due to the law of probability, over time the strategy will yield profit.
The Game Starts Now!
Live betting on sports is a tough way to begin your betting journey. If you are new to betting and don’t have a great grasp on how odds are framed, then live betting may have to wait. As you gain experience you will begin to see opportunities. Be selective and patient. A ton of fun awaits!
Good Luck and as always please gamble responsibly!