The great game of golf is one of constant challenges. As a player there is always another obstacle or hazard to negotiate. So often the course chews you up and spits you out. As tough as the game of golf can be, attempting to bet and win on the great game can seem more difficult than staring down the 12th at Augusta National in the middle of wind storm.
Successfully betting on golf needs a plan. Here are 10 strategies that will get your golf betting career off to a great start.
Understand the Markets
To successfully bet on golf you must first understand the available markets and how to make them work for you. The major betting markets are as follows:
Outright Winner
As the name Suggest this market is focussed on the individual who wins the tournament. This is a notoriously tough market to pick. With up to 156 players on the start list of a regular PGA tour tournament it no wonder predicting the winner can feel like finding a needle in a haystack.
Top 5/Top10 Finish
This market gives bettor more of a shot at a return. Taking a player to finish top five or top ten means that a finish within that bracket of placings will pay the same amount regardless of whether they are first or fifth (in the case of a top 5 bet).
To Make The Cut
After the first two days/rounds of a professional tournament the field is reduced in size with only the top 70 players (plus ties) being allowed to play the weekend. In a standard 156 player field, roughly 86 players are cut. Therefore sportsbooks will offer odds on whether a player survives the cut. This is an interesting market as often the odds to make the cut are less than double the bettors money yet more than 50% of the players are generally cut.
3 Ball
This market occurs on days one and two of a tournament. In the first two rounds players are grouped in threes and therefore sportsbooks will offer odds on the best performing player within that group on that day. As groupings are redrawn for the second round odds will be reframed for the new sets of three. This market only takes into account the scoring on that day. Their overall tournament score is irrelevant for this market.
This 3 ball market does not include the tie. Therefore is two players were too finish on the same score the bettor typically receives half the odds. If you have wagered on the favorite at minus odds you will receive less than your original stake back. Alternatively if you have taken an underdog at plus money then at half odds you will at least receive a larger return than your original stake.
2 Ball or Pairs (Including Tie)
Two ball or ‘pairs’ is a market that appears as the tournament moves into the weekend. In rounds three and four players are in pairs as opposed to three like the first two rounds. Sportsbooks will post markets on the head to head winner between each pairing based on the score for that round only.
This market is hugely popular as it essentially turns those pairing into match play format and for fans watching on TV a weekend round becomes loaded with interest as each pairing tees off. The added interest comes from the fact that the players are paired based on their current tournament score (eg leaderboard position) and therefore usually they have typically performed close to the same in the previous rounds.
This market also includes the tie which adds a third, very viable, option. Almost without fail the tie is offered at around odds of +800 (9.00 decimal odds) regardless of pairing. The third option of the tie makes this market more difficult to master.
The Strategies
1. Fine Tune Your Pre-Tournament Betting Game
Pre-tournament betting, or futures as it is commonly known, is a hugely popular betting style in the world of golf. There are a few reasons for this but one of the big ones is that golf is so statistically measurable that it becomes quite simple to know how your wager is fairing at any stage of the tournament.
Let’s say for example you have bet on Jon Rahm pre-tournament. At any stage of the tournament, from the moment he tees off in the first round until the 72nd hole, you can get a point in time measure of how Rahm’s performance compares to the rest of the field. Not only can you see where he is positioned you can also quickly quantify what he needs to do to either get to the lead or retain the lead.
Why does this matter? It’s quite simple. By knowing the exact position of your player compared to the field (the other players in the tournament) you are now armed with the information that you need to consider your options. In the case of the Joh Rahm example let’s say he is two shots back off the lead coming into the third round. As a bettor you now have three clear options.
- Let The Bet Ride – Will Rahm can claw his way to victory
- Cash Out – Lock in a return
- Hedge your bet – Investing in other tournament front runners, to lock in a return.
Clearly cashing out and hedging only become realistic options if your original pre tournament bet is in the thick of the contest. If they have had a blow out day early on then the bettor is left with just one option – let the bet ride until the situation improves or the bet officially loses.
Letting the bet ride, cashing out or hedging your bet are situation specific and without having the full background on any one tournament scenario it is difficult to lock in a one size fits all method here. Sensing the right move to make in these circumstances is a learned skill that develops with experience. The main thing is to be aware you have the option. With golf tournaments taking four days to complete, bettors are afforded time to weigh up which road to take and therefore remove some of the impulsivity from the situation.
The Takeaway: Golf futures betting is big business and should be part of your golf betting game. Work on spotting value options that will give you chances to exit the bet by hedging or cashing out later in the tournament.
2. Bet on Multiple Players Pre-Tournament
Another pre-tournament betting option is to take more than one player to win the tournament before it begins. Essentially you have more than one runner in the race. Some bettors refer to this as ‘splashing’ or ‘sprinkling’ in the sense that they are spreading their money around. I don’t like the term as it gives the feel that the bettor is being more random in their approach. If you are going to employ the method, it should really only be done when you genuinely believe there is more than one option that provides value, not just because you wanted to take a guess.
The multiple players method can give you more options in regards to cashing out or hedging later in the tournament but the trade off is by spreading your stake across more than one option you reduce your potential overall return. Horses for courses, some bettors prefer this approach others don’t.
Futures markets often lack value for bettors because they are one sided markets. That is, with sportsbooks not offering a ‘not to win’ option they are able to reduce odds on the ‘to win’ offering. In a two sided market if the odds on one side seem short then bettors will invariably attack the other side where theoretically the value lies. In one sided markets this is not possible. Therefore books feel at ease taking a little more juice from the bettor on futures markets. If you are ‘splashing’ your money around onto various players the chances of you taking a bet that is undervalued increases. In the long run this hurts your bottom line.
The Takeaway: Giving yourself options multiple runners in the race does in theory increase your chance of picking the winner. Just be wary that spreading yourself too thin will minimise your return and make the whole exercise pointless. Look for balance when betting on several players at once.
3. Research Course History
Clearly no two golf courses are the same. On the US PGA Tour the circuit will encompass a wide variety of course styles and conditions. Some courses favor certain types of players due to their layout or characteristics.
For example a course where the fairways are tight and the rough is treacherous, a player who may not be as long off the tee but hits a high percentage of fairways, may be a worthwhile investment. It stands to reason on a course like this, missing a fairway may be more punishing than usual and as a result a lack of accuracy may hurt a player more than it does on another week. This type of insight can pay dividends.
Other courses, where the Par 5s are extra long, may advantage the players who are able to hit their drives longer distances. The Par 5 s on any course are seen by the pros as a chance to claw back a shot (even two). On an extra long course those golfers that can reach the green with a manageable approach shot have a huge advantage.
Another way to investigate how a course plays is to look at the previous winners. If a course historically favors a certain type of player then it might be safe to assume it will continue in this vein. As a bettor, dig deeper and look at the records of players in the field on that course, you may be able to find unheralded players who play in the same style as those who have succeeded before. An underrated player who plays a style suited to a particular course may present some real value.
The Takeaway: Course history combined with player attributes make for a potent combination when looking for potential winners. Take the time to read up on a course and its intricacies. As you gain more experience this will become easier. Rest assured it pays dividends.
4. Know the Weather Forecast
Golf has always been affected by the weather. In fact the challenge in mastering the conditions is one of the things that makes the game of golf so great. There is no doubt about it no matter what the prevailing weather conditions are, some golfers will be advantaged by it and others will not.
As a bettor it is in your best interests to know what the forecast holds for the tournament you are betting on. As an example imagine a forecast that indicates strong winds picking up across the afternoon. Players who were lucky to land an early tee time may well be back in the clubhouse before the wind picks up. Others may have only just begun their round and face the challenge of the awkward wind throughout their round. In a circumstance like this, the morning will favor lower scoring.
Alternatively the weather may be dull and dreary with squally showers across the morning but fine up into a nice afternoon and ideal low scoring conditions. Factored into the might be slightly softer greens from the morning showers which allows the afternoon players to attack the pin with more confidence.
The Takeaway: With a small amount of research you can be across the potential role weather will play in a particular tournament. Changes in the weather can throw the form guide out the window. Think through potential weather related scenarios before they play out, that way when they appear you are ready to strike.
5. Fade the Big Name Players
Golf is an individual sport and as such there are some huge personalities that play the game. There are clear fan favorites and even the odd villain or two. With that kind of dynamic it’s stands to reason that betting handle (the amount bet) flows towards the fan favorites.
Much of that betting volume is less about analysis of the game and more about hopeful dreaming that when ‘their guy’ comes up the 18th on Sunday afternoon not only will he be cheered all the way to the green, the bettor will make bank also. As much as betting is an emotive thing it really should be emotion free with a calculated approach.
For this reason it is worthwhile fading the big name players on many occasions. As mentioned earlier, with tournament champion markets being one sided there is incentive for sportsbooks to leave the big name players at shorter prices knowing full well they will attract money any way. Why not mitigate the risk by offering less return.
So how do you benefit? Look for the unfashionable ‘ugly duckling’ type players who grind out careers on the tour year after year. This can’t be done without consistency, the amount of fanfare or accolades they receive doing it is irrelevant. It’s about results.
The Takeaway: Don’t be afraid to fade the big name players. The less familiar names are still world class. Look for value on these players in pre-tournament, 3 ball and pairs betting, particularly when up against a big name. Also consider the top 5 and top 10 finish markets. The unfashionable but consistent golfer cuts a living by sneaking into high place finishes.
6. Learn to Bet the Grouping Match-Ups
The 3 ball and 2 ball (pairs) betting is a huge golf betting market. Other than the tournament winner market it is the next biggest draw for bettors. If you want to become a serious golf bettor, learning how to tackle this market is critical. There are a few key things that you need to be across:
First Two Rounds
Firstly the 3 Ball (threesomes) market is only available in the first two rounds of the tournament. It does not include the tie as an option and therefore, as mentioned previously, you will receive half odds if your player ties with someone else from the group.
Groupings are decided based on merit and career record. Tee times and groupings are generally released by Tuesday, two days before the tournament begins. This is important because on the first two days the more highly rated players, in terms of on tour achievements, receive the more fancied tee times. This is obviously to maximise the experience for television and on course spectators.
That means on the first two days there are some excellent high profile match-ups pitting experienced players against each other in prime time slots. A perfect scenario for bettors as it creates an excellent two sided betting market with plenty of price fluctuations.
The flipside of this is the early tee times on the first few days are usually lesser known golfers who are grinding out a career. Research pays dividends here as you may be able to pinpoint a player on the rise or fade a tour rookie who is up against an experienced player full of guile. The real fun in golf betting comes from reading the form and finding winners from the groupings.
The Weekend
On Saturday and Sunday, when only the top 70ish golfers take the course the groupings become pairs. Often referred to as 2 ball. Betting markets in the 2 ball offer golfers three options, either player to win and the tie. This is true head to head betting.
The pairings are decided based on the players’ position on the leaderboard. The two tournament leaders go in the final tee time and each time slot prior to that is filled with the next two people on the leaderboard. This means the two golfers in each pair have performed virtually the same to this point in the tournament. In many ways immediate form is already calculated for you and often the odds just reflect the career record of the golfer. For example, if a player with a high world ranking is paired with a second year pro ranked 75th, the higher ranked player will be priced as the favorite almost automatically.
Golf performance is full of variance and this truly gives the underdog in the pairing a great shot. Particularly as they have performed equally as well as their paired opponent on the two previous days.
The Takeaway: Don’t be afraid to take an underdog in threesomes and 2 ball betting. The difference between a good day and a bad day on the course is sometimes an inch here or bad bounce there. With that in mind it serves you well to be on the player who is at plus money.
In pairings for the final round players look for the tie as an option. You invariably receive +800 (9.00 decimal) for the tie. The nature of the pairings is that they have shot the same or at least close to the same score for the previous 54 holes and therefore a tied score is in the frame.
7. Learn to Bet Live
If you build it they will come and guess what, they are building it. I am not referring to a baseball diamond in a cornfield in Iowa, but instead to the wonderful world of betting in play. Live betting on golf has generally been restricted to the tournament winner market. These odds fluctuate throughout the tournament but become particularly volatile as the tournament reaches its climax. If you only ever learn to bet live on this market its still worthwhile.
Betting live is all about reading shifts in momentum and identifying the roll the intangibles play in deciding the winner in the unscripted drama of big time sports. Golf is full to the brim of unscripted drama and wild momentum swings.
The thing is the overall is not where the golf live betting journey will end. The PGA Tour has already signalled its intention to look into ways to have on course performance data fed in real time to sportsbooks. This will open up a world of live betting opportunities. This could include markets based around shot by shot outcomes. For example, will player x’ next drive hit the fairway? How many putts will player Y have on the next hole? Even more exact measurement like drive length of distance to the pin could be factored in sometime soon.
It is believable to think that a whole host of these more obscure live betting markets will be on offer sometime soon. Particularly in major tournaments where the viewership and betting handle are increased. The thing is live betting on any sport is fickle. While the rewards can be lucrative and exhilarating a poor live betting strategy can be a one way ticket to bust town.
The Takeaway: Live betting is set to expand quickly in the world of golf. As it expands there will be inefficiencies and that signals opportunities for bettors. Become a first mover and learn to bet live on golf as the market expands and before sportsbooks truly tighten up their game.
Also use live betting as a means to hedge your pre tournament futures bet. Keep an eye on the live odds late in the tournament. If you see a chance to hedge off your original bet and lock in a profit it may be worth doing do.
Finally if you are going to wait until the tournament is in full swing to bet on an overall winner it might worth waiting until they have had a minor setback like landing their drive in the rough. If you believe your player is good enough to scramble a par save then grab them at a point of challenge as their odds will have drifted, presenting you with value.
8. Get to Know The Key Performance Statistics
One of the great aspects of betting on golf is the fact that so many components of the game are measurable. As a result some very informative statistics are freely available to the general public. Obviously sportsbooks have full access to these statistics (and probably more) however the way in which they are interpreted is entirely up to you as the bettor.
As has been seen in other high profile sports such as the NFL and NBA, despite widespread public access to the whole gamut of statistics, people still manage to come up with systems of interpreting the statistics to gain insight that no one else has yet mastered. Playing styles, technology and tactics adapt over time and so the story the statistics tell also changes.
Some of the most common statistical categories are:
| Statistic | What it Measures? |
| Greens in Regulation (GIR) | The percentage of greens a player hits in regulation. Regulation is par less two shots. Eg on a Par 5 the regulation target is three strokes, allowing for two putts to make par. |
| Driving Accuracy Percentage | The percentage of time a player hits the fairway with their drive |
| Scoring Average | The average score shot by a player per round |
| Scrambling | The percentage of time a player misses the green in regulation but still manages to make par. |
| Strokes Gained Total | The number of shots better or worse a player is per round compared to the rest of the field |
| Driving Distance | The average total distance hit by a player when driving off the tee. |
Now I am not suggesting you develop your own crazy system I am just saying, pay attention to the statistics. Particularly over the short to medium term. For example, you may see a young golfer who has tightened up his short game and as a result has improved his ability to scramble resulting in him giving away shots around the greens.
Alternatively you see experts placing a lot of weight on a statistic that you think is less important. For example you may not believe driving distance is super important but is referenced by commentatotrs etc because its kind of ‘sexy’. Instead you may place more credence on greens in regulation because you think what is lost in driving distance is made up by accurate approach shots to the green.
The Takeaway: Statistics can often lead to analysis paralysis. While they tell a story sometimes they distort the story. Get to know the performance stats and choose the ones you think give accurate insights into players recent performance history. Focus on those and act on changes you see. This is one way to get ahead of the public money and get the longer odds.
9. Factor in the Majors
Undoubtedly when you speak to general sports fans about golf they have all heard of golf’s four major tournaments even if they only have a passing interest in the game. Take the US Masters for instance. The final afternoon at Augusta National is one of those must see sporting events. You know you are guaranteed drama and excitement when the pressure is high and the stakes are even higher.
As a golf bettor you can capitalise on the majors in your own way. Sportsbooks use major golf tournaments as a way to draw in bettors who wouldn’t ordinarily bet on golf. This means more markets are offered including a whole variety of proposition (prop) bets.
When sportsbooks increase their offerings it increases their chance of error or poor pricing. Often books will throw up gimmicky markets targeting the unseasoned bettor and enticing them to bet. Sometimes books just get these markets wrong. If you have been following the golf more regularly than the average Joe you may see weakness in the odds and strike.
Another favorable situation is the flood of money that comes from inexperienced golf bettors during major tournaments. They love to cheer on fan favorites and often back that up with their hard earned money. So while some of the big names attract unusually large amounts of money, other lesser known players offer real value which is worth taking.
The increased interest in the majors, mean sportsbooks compete with each other for the betting business. This usually results in some bettor friendly promotions which just aren’t around on the week to week tournaments. It is absolutely in your best interest to snap up these promotions, particularly if they are on markets that you were intending to bet on anyway.
Finally where major golf is concerned, sportsbook put up futures markets well in advance of the tournament. In cases like the US Master or British Open Championship markets will be up close up for the next year not long after the sun has set on the final round of this year’s tournament. While you must always factor in the opportunity cost of having money tied up in a long range market, this is definitely a time to snap up juicy odds on an up and coming player who you see great potential in but the market is yet to spot.
The Takeaway: Don’t just see major tournaments as the pinnacle of golf, see them as your big ticket items as well. The experience you gain from betting on week to week golf may just set you apart from the recreational bettor who only bets on the majors for fun. Some astute futures betting ahead of time may see you showered in hedging and laying off opportunities throughout the tournament.
10. Use More Than One Sportsbook
The thought of using more than one sportsbook conjures up ideas of betting addiction. Not at all. Owning an account at multiple sportsbooks is astute and very worthwhile. Never more so is this the case when major golf tournaments come rolling around.
By having access to more the one book you can supercharge your golf futures betting game. Where one book may have a particular price on a player you like another may be offering longer odds. Being able to shop around for those odds can make a difference in the long run.
This is driven home more heavily when betting in play. If you are looking to hedge or simply looking to get some acton ona player that you feel is looking the goods, often there are variations in the odds on offer at the live betting platforms of the major books. If you have access to those books you have access to the best price.
Another huge benefit of owning an account at several sportsbooks is access to promotions that are on offer at any of the books. In the summertime when many of the other mainstream sports are on hiatus, sportsbooks will often throw up juicy promotions targeting the golf. If you have an account at more than one book you can be accessing multiple promotions at the same time. Who doesn’t want free money or free bets?
The Takeaway: Owning a sports betting account at more than one sportsbook allows you to have your cake and eat it too. Get the best odds, grab the best promotions and maximise your fun. It’s a no brainer.
Make sure you check out the sign up bonuses to all the best books that are on offer here at the School Of Bets.
The Game Starts Now!
Golf is a great game made even better when you have a little action on the go. The best way to learn how to bet and win on golf is to dip your toe in the water. As you gain experience you will start to see great spots to jump in and make a profit!
