The unique game of Australian Football, or Aussie Rules as its affectionately known, is one of the most exciting spectacles in the world of sport. Even better than this it is available to be bet on anywhere that sports gambling is legal in North America!
Due to the time differences between North America and Australia it is on at a time when most domestic sports are not. This presents a perfect chance to get some action on a high volume market during betting ‘downtime’.
How Do You Actually Bet on Aussie Rules?
It’s far simpler than you think! In the next 5 minutes you will learn how to bet the Australian Football Moneyline market and have some success!
The number one professional competition is called the AFL (Australian Football League). It is the fourth most attended domestic football league of any sort in the world. Sometimes people refer to the sport as a whole as ‘AFL’ but this is a misnomer. The sport is Australian Football and the league is the AFL.
For everything you need to know about betting Australian Football, including a ton of strategies, you need to check out our comprehensive guide.
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So What is The Australian Football Moneyline?
In Australia where, Aussie Rules and betting are both part of everyday life, the moneyline market is actually called ‘Head to Head’. The name comes from the fact that as a better you are simply wagering on whether one team will beat another team outright. No handicaps. No Point Spreads. No Point Totals. Just which team will be winning when the final siren sounds.
The Moneyline is the most pure form of betting. Pick who you think will win, place your bet and collect when they prevail.
Here are a few more things you need to know:
The Odds
In Australia, sportsbooks will use the Decimal Odds system to frame their market, but here in the United States you can expect to be betting with American Odds. Simply put American Odds describe either how much a better needs to wager to win $100 (minus odds) or how much they will win if they wager $100 (plus odds).
It’s best described with the following example from the DraftKings Sportsbook
In the above game we can see the Carlton Blues are on the road against the Richmond Tigers. It is important to note that in Australia the home team will be listed first but as this is taken from DraftKings, the home team is listed second, as is protocol in the US. If you are betting with a book outside the US it’s best to check which method the book is using!
The moneyline here is listed as ‘regular time’, I am assuming to prevent confusion between the ‘head to head’ and ‘moneyline’ terminology. Rest easy, it just means moneyline. The other market listed here is the ‘point spread’ which we will not cover here but you can read all about in our dedicated Australian Football Point Spread article.
As you can see the Carlton Blues are +280 underdogs in this game. The plus sign in front of the odds indicates that your profit will be larger than your stake should they win. Essentially if you bet $100 on the Blues you will make a profit of $280 and an overall return of $380 (your stake is returned).
If you bet on the Richmond Tigers at the odds -400 then you are taking a heavy favorite. The minus odds indicates that your profit will be less than your original stake. In this case much less!
Simply put, the -400 means you will need to invest $400 to make a profit of $100 and a total return of $500. A 25% return on your money. A low return because the books consider Richmond a very strong chance of winning this game.
The moneyline odds fluctuate depending on the perceived likelihood of a team winning. Low likelihood: big plus money odds. High likelihood of winning: minus odds.
The challenge for any better is find odds that seem out of step with your perception of who will win and bet accordingly!
The Scoring
If you’re going to bet the Australian Football Moneyline you need to have a rough idea of how the scoring works. Aussie Rules is a unique game but scoring is actually quite simple.
For now this is the bones of it.
The goal posts look like this:
| Mode of Scoring | What It’s Worth | How It Happens |
| Goal | 6 Points | When a player KICKS the ball between the larger middle posts and the ball crosses the goal line either bouncing or on the fly without being touched. There is no other way to score a goal. |
| Behind | 1 Point | When the ball crosses goal line between either of the two side goals in any manner (ie kicked, carried through or off hands) If the ball crosses between the larger posts without being kicked (ie off hands or carried through). When the ball hits either of the two larger posts. |
Typically teams score somewhere between 75 and 100 points in a game although as happens in sports, sometimes scores can be lower or even much higher.
A team does not have to kick more goals to win they simply need to score more points. It does happen from time to time where a team kicks less goals but scores more behinds and wins the game.
Goals and behinds are referred to as scoring shots and therefore the team with more scoring shots would expect to win….but they don’t always!
Is Overtime Played in Australian Football?
Strangely in regular season games in the AFL overtime, or extra time as it is known in Australia, is NOT played. If the scores are tied at the end of the game then the result is declared a ‘draw’ (think tie).
If you have bet the moneyline market and the game ends in a tie you will receive a payout based on the Dead Heat Rule. The only time this would differ is if your sportsbook actually offered the tie or draw as a betting option. Typically this does not happen but look out for it!
Overtime will be played in playoff games (the finals) as it is essential that an overall winner is decided on that day. When it comes to finals the moneyline market will include overtime (extra time).
The Stats That Matter When Betting the Aussie Rules Moneyline
When betting the Aussie Rules moneyline there are a few stats that matter and I am not just talking about the goals and behinds. A quick look into team performance stats can help to give a guide on who may win.
Here is a run down on a few key performance stats and why they matter.
| The Stat | What it Measures | Why it Matters |
| Marks Inside 50 | The amount of marks a team takes inside their attacking 50m arc. | A mark gives a player a ‘free possession’ A mark inside 50 usually means a shot on goal. More shots = better chance of winning. |
| Points From Turnovers Differential | The amount of points a team scores directly from forced turnovers. | Aussie Rules is a possession based game. Control the ball and you will score. Forcing a turnover allows a team a chance to rebound up the field before their opponents have had a chance to account for loose players. Teams that capitalise on turnovers win games. |
| Opposition Scores Per Inside 50 | The points a team allows their opposition to score per time they enter the attacking 50m arc. | In recent years the AFL has become a league focussed on maintaining possession and minimising opponents’ scoring. Teams whose defenders can keep repelling attacking raids typically win games. |
| Contested Possession | The amount of times a team wins possession when it’s in dispute. | Possession matters. If possession is in dispute the team that can win the ball clearly has far more chances of scoring. AFL games are won in the trenches. |
| Metres Gained Differential | The difference between total metres gained by both teams. | In a game played over such a large expanse it makes sense that a the team that gains the most metres has more opportunity to score. This one is in some ways a no brainer but often bettors focus on total disposals yet really the focus should be on what a team does with the ball. |
Up to date statistical performance indicators can be found at any time by visiting the official AFL site.
Should You Bet Favorites or Underdogs?
This is the age old question. There is no hard and fast rule. Our take is that in the AFL momentum plays a massive role. Teams can look a million dollars one week and totally busted the next. The reason? Its a physical sport.
A quick look at the end of season AFL ladder (standings) will show that the vast majority of teams battle to win more than 50% of their games. This means that inconsistency reigns. Teams evolve their game style and at times match up better with one opponent than another. It’s just how it is. For that reason don’t be afraid to take an underdog.
Our tip: keep a close eye on ‘percentage’. This metric is located on the overall standings and measures the percentage of points a team scores compared to their opponents across the course of the season. Teams with solid percentages (over 100%) are clearly competitive week in week out. If you spot an underdog with a plus 100 percentage. They might be worth a shot!.
Before you start betting check out our sign up bonuses with PointsBet and UniBet. Kick off your rugby betting experience with a few free swings!
The Game Starts Now!
Australian Football may be a new sport to you and certainly new to bet on. Give it a shot. It’s fast paced, spectacular and completely addictive! Betting the moneyline is one of the easiest ways to begin your betting journey. Get in the game!
Good luck and as always, gamble responsibly!
