Tennis provides one of sports best live betting (In-game) wagering opportunities. With matches sometimes lasting several hours and breaks in play at change of ends and between sets the bettor has time to weigh up their options, and the available markets, before jumping in. As the game of tennis is so statistically measurable, sportsbooks offer countless live markets on all the numerous bet types. For the astute bettor there is profit to be made betting live on tennis!
What Makes Tennis an Attractive Live Betting Sport?
Year Round Matches
Tennis is a year round sport that invariably chases the sun. What this means for bettors is countless matches each and every week. Beginning with the Australian Open lead up tournaments in January through to the end of year ATP finals in late November, the opportunity to bet is constant. In addition to top flight tennis, sportsbooks will offer live betting on the second tier satellite and qualifying tournaments, albeit with less available markets.
No sports bettor should be spreading themselves too thin but endless matches means when other sports hit their downtime, much like an old friend, tennis will always be there!
Surely this alone is enough incentive to get schooled in live tennis betting.
The Take Home: With endless opportunities to bet live on tennis be sure to exercise patience. Don’t be too eager as you will invariably misstep. Just focus on a few targeted plays and wait for them to set up nicely before you jump in!
Momentum Swings
The momentum swings in tennis, particularly best of five matches, give sophisticated bettors a chance to take advantage of live markets and ‘trade’ odds to lock in guaranteed profits. A great example of opportunistic in-game wagering strategy is when a favored player goes down an early break of serve in a set. Often their odds will drift and this is when the smart money pounces. Much like the way a stock market trader, sees a stock they like drop in trade, and buy more to take advantage of the dip. If the bettor truly believes in the favored player then ‘buying the dip’ is critical to profitable live tennis betting.
The Take Home: If you have belief in a player pregame and they fall a little bit behind during the flow of the match then buy the dip. Average up your overall odds. Perhaps stake a little less pregame and have some ammunition ready to fire in-game if the opportunity presents itself.
Another example of a momentum swing betting opportunity comes from observing a live match closely. Let’s imagine two top 50 ranked players are battling it out. One player is lights out in the first set hitting winners both sides of the court. Clearly this is hard to combat. It may seem by looking at the match score alone the ‘hot’ player is many times a better player generally. An astute live bettor may assume a regression to the mean is due and actually bet against the in form player and take the opponent to rebound and win the second set.
The theory here is the lights out player cannot maintain the high standard for the duration of the match in much the same way an NBA team will probably not maintain ridiculous numbers from three point range for all four quarters of a game. A regression to the mean, or average, would indicate that perhaps the player’s unforced error count will skyrocket if they lose rhythm ever so slightly.
The Take Home: Look out for a player who ‘’can’t miss’. They probably will at some point and that is your spot. Regression to the mean can be your friend. You need to be watching the match closely to spot this opportunity.
Stoppages
Tennis is full of stopping points. After every three games the players change ends. They are given 90 seconds rest before taking the court at the opposite end. There are also breaks at the end of sets which is a clear reset point for players, fans, sportsbooks and of course bettors. This allows for live betting opportunities where the odds remain relatively stable.
Sophisticated live bettors have an ongoing complaint that by the time a bet is placed odds may have changed and often in an unfavorable direction. The regulated stoppages in tennis give bettors a larger window to get the bet on.
The Take Home: Remain calm and use the in game stoppages to give you time to get set wth your sportsbook.. This helps you grab the odds you actually desire.
Weather
Tennis is a sport where weather plays a role in the match. Rain or heat delays can cause a definite break in momentum for the players. For example the US Open is played in New York in September and it is notorious for hot humid conditions. In 2018 the heat rule was implemented on consecutive days early in the tournament. The heat rule allows players to take an extra 1o minute break between the second and third set for the women and the third and fourth set for the men.
Highly ranked Novak Djokovic used the 10 minute break to take an ice bath and reinvigorate himself during his tight second round match against American Tennys Sandgren. The American had just taken the third set in a physically draining tie breaker. When Djokovic returned from his ice bath he looked energised and fresh. He proceeded to take the fourth set 6-2 and advanced to the next round.
The Take Home: Look out for the heat rule. The opportunity to freshen up may mean a player, who looked out on their feet, in the previous set becomes formidable again. This is a wonderful live betting opportunity.
While less predictable, rain delays allow players a chance to get off court and reassess their game. It often advantages the player who is behind in the game as it breaks momentum. During the break the trailing player may be able to come up with an improved game plan to combat their opponents approach.
The Take Home: If you can foresee rain approaching anticipate a break in match momentum. The trailing player may become a value option in the live betting market
Windy conditions can disrupt heavy hitting baseline players who require exquisite timing to produce thunderous forehand winners. Movement of the ball in the air is detrimental to timing and rhythm. Wind also affects servers with a high ball toss as again the ball will move in the air.
The Take Home: If conditions change and wind picks up, as it tends to do in coastal locations mid afternoon then look for opportunities to fade heavy hitting baseliners. Players who use off speed shots become very tricky to handle in these conditions. Value will be around in the market.
Subtle Differences in Men’s and Women’s Tennis
The major difference between men’s and women’s tennis is the best of five sets rule in men’s grand slam events. This provides potential for much longer matches and therefore more momentum changes in game. But this is not the only difference.
The serve in men’s tennis is a more dominant component of the match. A break of serve in the men’s game is a significant measure of momentum change. In the women’s game breaks of serve are more common and as such going down a break does is not always terminal.
In the women’s game there is also a greater disparity in ground stroke speed between the heavy hitters and the more regular hitters. Consistent power becomes an enormous weapon in the women’s game. Strangely though, power can be overstated in the odds in women’s matches. Power alone is not match winning and in fact it is actually inaccuracy that cruels most power women’s games.
The Take Home: In the women’s game look for a power player to come out of the blocks early but then for the opponent to become accustomed to the power, adjust court position and come back into the game. Fluctuations in momentum in women’s tennis are the norm and not the exception.
Tennis is Statistically Measurable
One of the beauties of the tennis scoring system is that it is so segmented. With the match being broken up into points, games, sets and ultimately a match, it is so richly measurable. Statistical measurability gives sportsbooks plenty of opportunity to frame markets.
A whole range of set and game totals and handicaps are offered, even on seemingly much less important matches. This gives the bettor a chance to not only watch the numbers themselves but also to be able to develop a strategy to bet live. Much like a quantitative analyst may use numbers to attack the stock market so may a statistically minded tennis bettor.
The Take Home: If you prefer to base your betting style on numbers, the segmented and measurable nature of tennis is for you. It may take some time and effort, but search for a trend you like and wait until the set up occurs. Then hit it hard in the live betting market.
For example a particular school of thought is that ‘breakpoint opportunities’ are a good predictor of a player’s chances going forward. Much like shots on goal in soccer, break point opportunities actually need to be converted to mean anything concrete, but the more you have, the more chance you have of converting.
In reality a high amount of breakpoint opportunities may be mean the player’s return of serve is on song but it also could be a pointer to a poor serving display from the opponent. Presumably if it’s the latter then the statistic becomes less of a factor. The beauty of statistics is that one person’s interpretation may be wildly different to another’s.
The Take Home: In an even match, a player who has achieved a higher amount of break point opportunities is a live betting target as they are ‘getting in’ on the opponent’s serve meaning the all important break may be just around the corner.
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There is No Game Clock
Unlike most mainstream sports, tennis has no game clock. To win the match you must win the last point and to put the game to bed. An early lead in match is ideal but you can’t kill the clock and hope to hang on to the end. You must stay positive and aggressive. In that way it is so similar to sports betting. You must continue to take risks to move forward.
The mentality of having to win the last point is what can throw an underdog or inexperienced player off. The experienced players who have performed in high pressure high profile situations before, know that closing a match out is mentally a great challenge. Even on a day where the highly ranked player is struggling they know to heap pressure on their opponent as they approach the closing stages of the match.
One of the most famous examples of this was Jana Novotna attempting to serve out the 1993 Wimbledon final against the great Steffi Graf. Having lost the first set in a tiebreak to Graf, Novotna then astonishingly won the second set 6-1 and led the third set 4-1 and was serving at 40-30. At this point the gravity of what she was about to achieve set in and Novotna lost her rhythm completely. She fired a second serve long by 3 feet, plundered a simple put away volley into the net and lost the service game. 15 minutes later she had lost the third set and the title 6-4. Can you imagine the live odds swings during that first set.
The Take Home: There is no falling over the finish line in tennis. This plays into the hands of the astute live bettor. Look for opportunities where a player may choke on their lead and capitalise on the long odds on offer.
Tennis is Always Televised or Live Streamed.
As relentless as the pro tennis tour is along with it comes unrelenting live telecasts and live streaming. This dovetails perfectly with live betting.
Tennis is a made for television sport with relatively low cost of production. The umpires electronic scoring system is also linked to live scoring platforms which means bettors can be accessing visions and data live as it happens. Well virtually, there is a small time delay.
The supreme coverage of tennis lends itself to well researched bettors. Be mindful that sportsbooks are also well researched and much of the data is entered directly into their sophisticated algorithms. Tough to beat but not impossible.
The Take Home: You may be a time poor recreational bettor. In fact, most sports bettors are. The extensive coverage of tennis means you can access information on the run and place bets in a mobile fashion. Live betting and mobile betting are the future of this game.
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Players Work Each Other Out
A unique attribute of individual sports like tennis is the purity of the contest. Tactics implemented by one player are countered by the other. Players need to think on their feet and be able to adjust their game style to find ways to stay ahead of their combatant. In professional tennis this strategic dance can change the momentum of the game numerous times throughout the match. On the men’s tour this occurs without any coaching, it is down to the player’s knowledge of the game.
Experienced tour stalwarts like Ferndano Verdasco have extended their careers well past their prime by being tactical students of the game. Being able to breakdown a younger and stronger opponents game during the match. Sophisticated bettors can spot the subtle tactical changes as they occur and hit the live odds when the chance aries.
On the WTA tour, coaching is allowed, except at grand slam events, and this input from the sideline, if effective, changes games and contributes to momentum swings.
The Take Home: Whether it be with assistance, or on their own, professional players work each others game out during play. The longer the match the more chance that tactical agility will win out in the end. Look for the player who can adjust game style quickly.
One small caveat to this is the ‘ambush’ that a new player on the tour can pull off. If a player has not been seen by opponents then they are less predictable and have a grace period where their weapons and weaknesses are unknown. They will be worked out but just maybe they get the jump on their more fancied opponents.
The Take Home: The young unseen player is worth a look at live handicap and games total markets as they may be able to ‘hang tough’ with their opponent until they are worked out.
The Game Starts Now!
Live betting on tennis is a worthwhile string for any bettor to add to their bow. As with all new things, begin patiently and focus on small steps. Should you find some success, the opportunities are endless!
