A successful parlay is a thing of beauty and something to behold. It is bragging rights for days and story of survival against all the perils that the unscripted drama sport can throw up. Although most importantly for all punters, it is often a sizable boost to your bank, generally from a relatively small outlay.
A parlay is a bet type comprising of two or more wager legs. The decimal odds of each individual wager are then multiplied to give you the final parlay odds. All wager legs must win for the parlay to be paid out. A parlay bet can also be referred to as a combo, all up, multi or accumulator bet.
In the event that one or more of the legs results in a tie, otherwise known as a ‘push’,those legs are dropped from the bet and the parlay will revert to only count the remaining legs. At this point an adjustment is made to the overall odds to reflect this change in included legs.
The Parlay Multiplier Effect
The Parlay is an increasingly popular bet type with gamblers as it allows the odds of a variety of wagers to multiply through to create a single bet with an enticing payout. Below is a classic example of a well placed parlay bet. At face value this bet looks quite simple but certainly has some deeper considerations.
In Week 13 of the 2018/19 NFL season the following parlay was placed on three home teams. Two large home underdogs in Dallas and Jacksonville followed by a strong favorite in reigning Superbowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles. This wager was ultimately successful and produced a wonderful windfall for the bettor. It is very important to note that the parlay legs were all moneyline wagers, critical in delivering reasonable value to the punter.
| Date | Match Up | Pick | Money Line Odds | Decimal Odds | Final Score | Wager Result |
| ThursdayDecember 3rd 2018 | New Orleans @ Dallas | Dallas | +277 | 3.77 | New Orleans 10Dallas 13 | Win |
| SundayDecember 2nd 2018 | Indianapolis @ Jacksonville | Jacksonville | +179 | 2.79 | Indianapolis 0Jacksonville 6 | Win |
| Monday December 3rd 2018 | Washington @ Philadelphia | Philadelphia | -244 | 1.41 | Washington 13Philadelphia 28 | Win |
| Parlay Wager | $100 | Parlay Odds | 14.83 | Parlay Return | $1483 |
The key to understanding the calculation in this example is that the moneyline odds have been converted to their decimal odds equivalent. The odds are then multiplied to give the actual parlay odds.
Ie. 3.77 x 2.79 x 1.41 = 14.83
That is a return of $14.83 per one dollar wagered. Therefore a $100 bet returns $1483. A juicy return in any language.
The Parlay Anchor
In the above example, the use of the Philadelphia Eagles as the Monday Night Football strong home favorite could be referred to as the ‘anchor’. The anchor is viewed by the bettor as a wager that will most likely win and is therefore added to the parlay to gain a useful multiplier effect to the overall odds. It is the leg that the parlay is effectively built around hence it is given the anchor name.
In this case the Eagles inclusion as an anchor at -244 (1.41 decimal odds) increases the parlay odds from 10.52 to the eventual 14.83. Not a bad increase for what is seen as pretty sure thing. It is important to note however that coming in to the Monday Night game the bettor had effectively already turned $100 into $1052 due to the first two successful picks being heavy underdogs. Those winnings are all on the line on Monday Night representing a nervous wait for the bettor. This is why in some places the parlay is aptly referred to as the ‘all-up’ – the original stake and winnings from the previous leg/s are ‘all-up’ on the next leg.
Bookmakers are always happy when strong favourites are beaten, but when that favourite was anchoring a large number of parlays, they are ecstatic!
Parlay Time Span Conundrum
The length of time that a parlay wager will take to settle often presents to many betters a tricky conundrum. Does the opportunity cost of the stake being tied up in the parlay for relatively long period of time outweigh the value it presents?
In the above example the time span between the first and final legs was four days (Thursday through Monday). As the parlay bookends the weekend the money invested is unavailable for further wagers at a time when many betting opportunities across all sports present themselves. This may be seen as a negative for some gamblers as they could have taken the profits from a simple Moneyline Thursday night bet paying big (+277) and reinvested into a variety of other weekend sports.
On the other hand the longer turn around gives the bettor more time to consider options such as cashing out or hedging their bets. For more on the art of hedging click this link.
When are Parlays NOT good value?
Bookmakers often promote parlays because essentially a lot has to go right for the bettor to win. Picking one winner at times can be hard enough. Stringing multiple winners together on end is no mean feat. It is for this reason that many punters consider all parlays to be void of any real value. The risk is simply too high. Nevertheless the allure of the multiplier effect and bumper payout is always there.
Despite the already built-in difficulty of a parlay, there are times when the bookmaker’s mathematical edge increases dramatically as the multiplier effect takes hold. Something all punters should avoid!
A great example of this is when a punter parlays multiple games against the spread. The majority of bookmakers will offer odds of approximately -110 (1.91 decimal odds) against the points spread for each game. This means a bettor doesn’t quite double their money on a market that essentially has just two outcomes. The books have built into those numbers their edge or profit. When two such games are parlayed then that edge is multiplied through and increases.
The table below shows the compounding nature of the bookie’s edge as more parlay legs are added. This example is assuming that all match spreads include a ‘hook’ (half point) to prevent a push.
| Number of Parlay Legs | Real Decimal Odds at 50% winning chance per leg | Books payout odds based on -110 (1.91 Decimal odds) per leg | Approximate Bookmaker % Edge |
| 2 | 4.00 | 3.64 | 9% |
| 3 | 8.00 | 6.96 | 13% |
| 4 | 16.00 | 13.31 | 17% |
| 5 | 32.00 | 25.42 | 21% |
| 6 | 64.00 | 48.55 | 24% |
| 7 | 128.00 | 92.73 | 27% |
| 8 | 256.00 | 177.11 | 31% |
| 9 | 512.00 | 338.30 | 34% |
| 10 | 1024.00 | 646.15 | 37% |
It is clear that the bookmakers would be crazy not to encourage spread betting wagers bundled up into parlays. Even if the better somehow lands the elusive 10 leg parlay they are only receiving a payout of $646.15 per one dollar invested on a wager that has true mathematical probability of 1 in 1024. Not a great recipe for long term success!
The Moneyline vs the Points Spread Parlay
As the previous example attests the points spread parlay only serves to decrease the value of the bet. The moneyline parlay is a much friendlier to the punter when it comes to value as the moneyline odds reflect a team’s chance of winning a game. Of course there is still some edge to the bookmaker but it is less magnified. For more on the bookmakers moneyline edge click here.
Why Won’t the Bookmaker Allow My Parlay?
Bookmakers will generally allow most single bets to be bundled together into a parlay, however there are times when a parlay is rejected. There are three main reasons.
1. Parlay has related contingencies
A paraly where the outcome of one or more of the legs can influence the outcome of other legs is said to have related contingencies. A parlay like this will be rejected at the time of placing.
For example, the following parlay has related contingencies:
- Bryce Harper hitting a homerun
- Phillies win
- Total Match Runs over 8.5
It is clear in this case that if Bryce Harper does hit a homerun, the Phillies chances of winning and the overs bet both improve significantly. These contingencies are related and therefore if this combination of wagers were parlayed then the odds would be better than the true odds. A sportsbook would soon be out of business if they allowed this bet.
Interestingly some online sportsbooks are beginning to allow ‘same game parlays’. However the odds are altered to account for the related contingencies and maintain the edge (vigorish or vig) for the bookmaker.
2. Parlay has exceeded the books appetite for risk.
All books, as they should, reserve the right to limit the risk they are taking on with any particular bet. After all they are in the game of managing risk and making profit. When odds are being multiplied then payout figures can skyrocket quicker than the Space X Falcon Heavy.
One way books control this risk by limiting the amount of allowable parlay legs. This limit will change from bookmaker to bookmaker but it can range between approximately 10 and 20 legs.
3. Parlay exceeds the book’s odds threshold
Another way sportsbooks mitigate risk is to limit a parlay if the potential payout exceeds a particular odds threshold. This threshold can vary depending on the bookmaker’s perception of the client, the particular sport being wagered, and the specific included markets in the parlay.
A great hypothetical example is the following futures moneyline parlay placed on April 10th 2019. The risk profile created would be too large for many books and therefore the payout limits would be enforced.
| Parlay Leg | Market | Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds |
| 1 | Patrick Reed 2019 US Masters Top 10 Finish | +450 | 5.50 |
| 2 | Manchester City 2019 English Premier League Champion | -175 | 1.57 |
| 3 | Milwaukee Bucks2019 NBA Champions | +700 | 8.00 |
| 4 | Ohio State Buckeyes2019 NCAA Football National Champions | +900 | 10.00 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears2019 NFC Champions | +500 | 6.00 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Lightning2019 NHL Champions | +180 | 2.80 |
| 7 | Liverpool2019 European Champions League Winner | +350 | 4.50 |
| 8 | Collingwood Magpies2019 AFL Premiership Winners | +400 | 5.00 |
| 9 | Serena Williams2019 Women’s Wimbledon Champion | +350 | 4.50 |
| 10 | Novak Djokovic2019 Men’s Us Open Champion | +135 | 2.35 |
| Overall Parlay Odds | 2 761 369.00 |
While the chances of this 10 leg parlay landing are more than remote many bookmakers are unlikely to accept the wager in the first place. Odds of over 2.7 million to one mean that the risk to their bank is simply too much, particularly when the punter may have only staked small.
If this punter feels strongly about these bets then they would perhaps be better served by bundling them into smaller groups, maybe based on when they fall in the calendar, this way potentially avoiding the bookmakers limits.
The System Parlay
In a traditional parlay if one leg loses the parlay loses. In a systems parlay the bettor can take ‘systems’ within their original selected legs. This gives the bettor multiple possible winning combinations. The functionality of the system creates in a way a hedge against the original full blown parlay. The many combinations and permutations are wagered upon creating a series of smaller bets all centred around the same legs as your original parlay. Most online books will offer systems on parlays of between 2 and 8 legs.
The most popular system parlays are listed in the table below:
| System Name | Original Parlay Legs | Permutations | Total Bets Placed | |
| Double | 2 | Limited (no singles) | 1 two leg combination | 1 |
| Treble | 3 | Limited (no singles) | 1 three leg combination | 1 |
| Trixie | 3 | Limited (no singles) | 1 Treble3 doubles | 4 |
| Patent | 3 | All | 1 treble3 doubles3 singles | 7 |
| Yankee | 4 | Limited (no singles) | 1 four-fold4 trebles6 doubles | 11 |
| Lucky 15 | 4 | All | 1 four-fold4 trebles6 doubles4 singles | 15 |
| Canadian | 5 | Limited (no singles) | 1 five-fold5 four-folds10 trebles10 doubles | 26 |
| Lucky 31 | 5 | All | 1 five-fold5 four-folds10 trebles10 doubles5 singles | 31 |
| Heinz | 6 | Limited (no singles) | 1 six fold6 five-folds15 four-folds20 trebles15 doubles | 57 |
| Super Heinz | 7 | Limited (no singles) | 1 seven-fold7 six-folds21 five-folds35 four-folds35 trebles21 doubles | 120 |
| Goliath | 8 | Limited (no singles) | 1 eight-fold8 seven-folds28 six-folds56 five-folds70 four-folds56 trebles28 doubles | 247 |
The Overnight Parlay
The overnight parlay is a less spoken about use of the humble combination wager. It is essentially where a bettor loads up a parlay that will result while they are sleeping. It is often used as an attempt to build a bank for the next days local action. More often than not it is placed on sports played abroad, where the time zone differences are used to the bettor’s advantage.
As an example, let’s use a bettor who lives in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (EDT) (UTC -4). There are a plethora of sports across Europe and Africa (5 – 7 hours ahead), and Asia and Australia (12 -14 hours ahead) that are played ‘after hours’ as far as the East Coast of the US is concerned. Granted many of these sports may be somewhat foreign to the regular US sports fan, but to an online sports bettors they all represent opportunity.
The following hypothetical Australasian parlay could be placed online in the US on Friday night (EDT) and be resulted by Saturday morning at 9am (EDT).
| Leg | Market | Sport | Start Time EDT (UTC -4) | Country Location | Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds |
| 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs WinNRL South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors | Rugby League | 1:00am | Australia | -277 | 1.36 |
| 2 | Waikato Chiefs WinSuper Rugby Waikato Chiefs v Auckland Blues | Rugby Union | 2:30amSaturday | New Zealand | -208 | 1.48 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows WinAFL North Melbourne v Adelaide Crows | Australian Rules Football | 5:15am Saturday | Australia | +105 | 2.05 |
| 4 | Mumbai Indians WinIndian Premier League Mumbai Indians V Rajasthan Royals | Cricket | 6:30amSaturday | India | -175 | 1.57 |
| Parlay Odds | 6.47 |
A payout figure of 6.47 to 1. A nice little overnight boost to any gamblers account!
In this example, the countries where these sports are being played, (Australia, New Zealand, India) legalised online sports betting a long time ago. The bookmakers in those countries are well established, are affiliated with US bookmakers (usually owned by the same parent company) and offer a huge amount of markets for each individual event. It is for this reason that these markets are easy to find with most US online bookmakers.
This example focuses on the moneyline as it requires far less understanding of the idiosyncrasies of each game and works well in parlays. The moneyline in these sports carry huge volumes due to the astronomical community uptake of online sports betting. In many ways these volumes add to the legitimacy of the markets.
The other entertaining feature of the above parlay and other similar overnight plays is that the ‘late game’, in this case the Mumbai Indians to win the Indian Premier League cricket game, does not begin until 6:30am EDT. You may happen to be awake at this early stage on a Saturday morning and if your Parlay is alive after the other three legs have resulted you are afforded the chance to hedge your bet by investing some capital into the Rajasthan Royals at decimal odds of 2.36. A guaranteed win while you take the kids off to little league!
Most importantly when considering the overnight parlay, the bettor’s motivation for wagering on sports is critical here. The gambler whose motivation for betting on sports is a desire to build their bank in a calculated manner is most suited to this strategy. It takes a little bit of research and a willingness to have your stake on the line while you sleep, sometimes easier said than done!
Should You Ever Bet a Parlay?
This is an age old question that sparks debate among many sports bettors. There is no hard and fast answer. To be honest you could ask 10 different gamblers and probably receive 10 different responses.
The professional gambler tends to focus more heavily on individual single bets however a cleverly planned parlay, based on value and including the correct types of betting markets will always provide opportunity for profit.
The recreational gambler, whose motivation to wager on sport is often that they simply enjoy the experience and hope to win from time to time, may fall victim to the allure and hidden perils of the parlay. Sportsbooks know this and promote this. That does not mean a recreational gambler can’t profit handsomely from this style of betting. In fact it really should be another weapon in the armoury of any avid sports bettor.
What can be said quite emphatically is that regardless of the sports betting world’s take on value, loss of edge and risk, there are few better feelings than landing that juicy parlay and letting everybody know about it!
