Tennis, a sport steeped in traditions with a rich history of epic battles testing mental and physical endurance. It pits rivals against each other in head to head battles where only one reigns victorious. When it comes to BETTING on tennis, not much is different, bookmaker v sports bettor. If you are going to take on the sportsbooks in the arena of tennis wagering, you need to bring some betting weapons. Here is what you NEED TO KNOW to get in the game!
Tennis offers continuous betting throughout the year. The most popular markets include match betting, handicap (set and games), over/under totals (set and games), prop bets, futures markets, and epic in-game betting opportunities. Globally it is immensely popular. The following is the guide to betting on tennis.
The Example
This following example which contains the odds for many of the main tennis betting markets. All odds are quoted in American with decimal odds in the parenthesis.
| ATP Barcelona Final | Dominic Thiem (3) | Daniil Medvedev (7) |
| Match Betting | -300 (1.33) | +240 (3.40) |
| Game Handicap (+/- 3.5) | -125 (1.80) -3.5 Games | -110 (1.90) +3.5 Games |
| Set Betting: 2-0 | -120 (1.83) | +450 (5.50) |
| Set Betting: 2-1 | +300 (4.00) | +600 (7.00) |
| Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | |
| Total Sets | -175 (1.56) | +138 (2.38) |
| Under 21.5 | Over 21.5 | |
| Total Games 2-Way | +100 (2.00) | -138 (1.72 |
First of all a bit of context. In the above example, the ATP final on the clay court in Barcelona, the 3rd seeded Austrian Dominic Thiem, fresh from a dominant win over clay court legend Rafael Nadal in the semi final, is set to take on 7th seeded Russian Daniil Medvedev, who battled through three tough sets to take down the 4th seed in the semi final. What makes this match up, and many like it in the tennis world, so intriguing are the huge number of variables at play. Framing a market in a matchup like this is difficult for bookmakers and that alone may mean there is some value floating around for smart bettors.
This tournament is a lead up to the prestigious French Open, a grand slam event. Rafael Nadal, who was beaten by Thiem, has won that tournament a mind blowing 11 times. The fact that the day before the above match, Thiem won out over Nadal in 2 sets is enough to give Thiem strong favoritism in the final.
Here are some other factors that are weighed up by sportsbooks when creating a market on this match.
In favor of Thiem
- Thiem’s world ranking is 5, Medvedev 14.
- Thiem has a 1-0 record against Medvedev but the final set was decided in a tiebreak
- The court surface is clay, Thiem has a 73% win rate on clay. Medvedev just 45%.
In favor of Medvedev
- Despite an average career clay record, Medvedev has won 8 out of his last 9 matches on that surface.
- Medvedev has won 6 more matches on tour this year than the player with the second most. He is in a rich vein of form.
Tennis, at the professional level, is analysed so heavily that at times it may seem like deciphering all this information and trying to pick a winner is harder than returning a John Isner first serve. The fact is in a sport where two individuals play each other, there is nowhere to hide, no team to fall back on, it comes down to the day, the set, the moment or just dumb luck. Betting on outcomes based on such variation is a risky pastime, but off the charts entertaining!
The Dominant Tennis Betting Markets
Match Betting (Moneyline)
The ‘match betting’ market is the simplest way to place a bet on a tennis match. Also referred to as the moneyline, head to head or straight up market, the bet is focussed on one condition of the match up: the winner. The match betting market is very popular across the world for its simplicity and tendency to offer strong favorites and massive underdogs, particularly in the early rounds of grand slam events (majors). There are literally thousands of professional tennis matches per year this market can be bet on.
In above example, as established, Dominic Thiem is a strong favorite. At odds of -300 a bettor would have to invest $300 to make a profit of $100 and a total payout of $400. The decimal odds (1.33) are helpful here. They work by multiplying the 1.33 by the amount wagered $300 to give the total payout of $400. Either way the bettor is risking quite a lot to for a pretty small return. At these odds Thiem has to win 75% of the time just to break even. You would be hoping Dominic woke up on the right side of the bed that morning!
On the flipside Daniil Medvedev is a reasonably big underdog considering he has won a few games to make this final. His odds of +240 mean that a bet of $100 would yield a profit of $240 and a total payout of $340. Odds like this make him an extremely attractive prospect for the interested bettor. The only problem, for the bet to cash, he has to overcome a player that wins 73% of the time on this surface. Perhaps his odds should be more like +300 (4.00).
Some bettors prefer to be on the favorite, others prefer the underdog. There is no hard a fast winning strategy except that the successful bettors on this type of market do not bet at every opportunity. They wait until they see a match up they like and bet hard.
Games Handicap
The games handicap aims to even out a match so that the odds offered are similar on boths sides of the market. Sportsbooks will offer a plus (+) games and a minus (-) games spread to the match. This means the underdog is given games and the favorite gives away games. If at the end of the match the player wagered on has won more games after the adding or subtracting the handicap then the bet wins.
Tennis sets are decided by an advantage of two games unless they go to a tiebreak, in which case the tiebreaker counts for one game and that is the games margin for the set. Just the one game. Of course one player may dominate another and may win a particular set by as many as 6 games (in the case of a 6-0 set). These variations make the games handicap market a fickle beast to tame.
It is easier to understand when we look at the above example. Let’s imagine Dominic Thiem goes on to win the match in two sets.
Hypothetical Scoreline:
| ATP Barcelona Final | Set 1 | Set 2 |
| Dominic Thiem | 6 | 6 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 4 | 4 |
Thiem was won 12 games and Medvedev has won 8. Now to factor in the handicap, we subtract the -3.5 from Thiem’s total games, leaving him with 8.5 games. As Medvedev scored just 8 (4+4), Thiem has ‘covered’, meaning he won enough games to cover the handicap. He was at odds of -125 meaning the bettor would have had to bet $125 to win a profit of $100 and a total return of $225. The attraction of this type of betting is that the odds on Thiem covering were considerably better than on him winning straight up in the match betting market.
Likewise bettors who wager on Medvedev in this market are in a funny way purchasing insurance on their bet. Had they bet on him in the match betting market the odds were very juicy (+240) but he had to win outright. In this case, with the +3.5 ‘head start’ Medvedev could put up a good fight, lose the match, and still the bet would win. Obviously in this hypothetical scenario the handicap bet lost, but it got mighty close.
The games handicap market is tailor made for the bad beat. A few contributing factors are as follows:
- Tiebreak sets are won by a margin of one game and not two. In the above example Thiem could have still won in straight sets but if the second set was a tiebreaker instead he ends up winning by just +3 games and fails to cover.
- An underdog can play so well for so long and the plus games handicap looks like an easy win (this happens all the time). Then the favorite wipes the floor with the underdog in the final set (say 6-2) and the games margin blows out. Eg. A +4.5 favorite wins 6-4, 6-7, 6-2. After the underdog snatched the second set in a tiebreak, they are only down 1 game and would have to be beaten by 4 games in the final set for the handicap bet to lose. Sure enough they fade late in the game they lose the 3rd 6-2. If they had just lost the second set tiebreak the +4.5 lands comfortably. A case of painful irony.
Last word on the games handicap. Be wary of an anomaly of Men’s tennis which can affect the games handicap offered by a sportsbook. The four grand slam events, (Aussie Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open) are all best of five sets. This means that a favorite will be giving away more games in the handicap and an underdog will be receiving more games because the winner is required to win three sets instead of two sets to advance. Don’t be tricked when looking at those markets and seeing a player who usually gets a +4.5 all of a sudden has +6.5. Sportsbooks very rarely get it wrong.
Set Betting
Set betting is another hugely popular tennis betting market. It is a way of betting on the winner of the match and the margin of victory by set score (the exact set score). In a three set game, like the example above, there are only four possible outcomes; a straight sets victory to either player (2-0) or a more even match that requires a third set (2-1). Picking a winner from four outcomes increases the risk and therefore increases the reward.
In our example the favored set betting result is Dominic Thiem to prevail in straight sets (2-0). It is paying -125 or 1.83 decimal. These odds are quite a bit more enticing than his straight up odds of -300 or 1.33.Of course a lot more has to go right to actually get paid.
A bettor may surmise that because Medvedev is in some solid form coming into the match he may put up a fight and sneak a set off Thiem. In that case the bettor would wager on a Thiem victory in three sets (2-1). The odds for that outcome are much juicier at +300. This is a way to bet on the favorite at attractive odds. A much loved play by many bettors.
The set betting on the underdog Daniil Medvedev is a much different proposition. As he is a rank outsider the odds on him dominating in two sets are long at +600. This means a bet of $100 delivers a profit of $600 and a total return of $700. A more likely scenario is that Medvedev causes the upset in three sets. This pays +450 and given the Russian has won his way through to the final it is not hard to imagine it happening.
Grand Slam Set Betting
The set betting market gets much more difficult in men’s grand slam events where the matches are best of five sets. All of a sudden there are 6 possible outcomes and for any bettor that is a challenge. In the early rounds of a grand slam many bettors look to take low seeds in straight sets (3-0) as a way of getting higher odds. This is fraught with danger as often in the early rounds the low seed, who is not yet at their peak, wins the game but drops a set.
The extra set betting permutations thrown up by the ‘best of five’ actually makes it a popular in-game or ‘live’ betting option. Many online or mobile bettors choose to watch the early exchanges of the match to gauge the play before deciding on their set betting options. Of course betting continues after each set is decided reducing the amount of possible outcomes but in turn reducing the odds of the remaining ‘live’ outcomes. Live in-game betting is perfectly suited to tennis.
Totals Markets
The totals market covers both total sets and total games for the match. Two very different markets. The total sets has less variation whereas the total games is dependent on each set and whether they were tightly faught, meaning more games, or one sided meaning far less games. Let’s look at the total sets market first.
Total Sets Market
The total sets market is quite simple. In all women’s matches across the tour and all non-grand slam men’s matches, the tennis match is decided in best of three sets. As the outcome can only be either a straight sets victory (2 sets) either way or an even 3 set match the over/under total or line is always set at 2.5. It simply cannot be anything else. This means the variation in the market has to be reflected in the odds instead of the line. What appears to be a coin flip is actually not.
In the above example the favored result is the under 2.5 sets as the odds are -175 (1.56). Really this is because the bookmakers are assuming that a Dominic Thiem 2 set victory is the most likely outcome. Of course if Medvedev was to come out swinging and win in straight sets, seemingly unlikely, the unders would still cash. It is no wonder the odds are not very generous.
The sets total overs market is the less favored result as that requires both players to win at least one of the first two sets. At odds of +138 (2.38) the bookmakers see this as somewhat unlikely. The bettor who ‘buys’ these odds is making the assumption that Medvedev is able to match Thiem for at least some of the match. Interestingly the underdog may win in straight sets because on the day they are striking the ball well and maintain the momentum through the two sets. With Medvedev being ranked 14 in world he is more than capable of doing this and that would bust the the over 2.5 bet as well.
Grand Slam Effect on Set Total Market
The set betting market becomes more complicated when looking at men’s grand slam markets. The men’s grand slam events typically receive the largest handle throughout the year, so it is very important to understand the changes that occur when the matches become best of five sets.
The set betting line is more flexible in best of five encounters because instead of it being locked at 2.5, it ranges between 3.5 and 4.5. The sportsbooks prefer this as they can settle on the line that is closest to a coin flip. That way they can achieve an even amount of betting on both sides of the market and receive their cut without being reliant on the outcome. Books will often offer a market on all three of the potential lines with varied odds on offer.
The following is an example of the set totals bets available in a typical best of 5 match:
Novak Djokovic V Juan Martin Del Potro
Men’s US Open Final
| Total Sets | Over | Under |
| +/- 3.5 | -133 (1.75) | +110 (2.10) |
| +/- 4.5 | +125 (2.25) | -153 (1.65) |
In this case, the Men’s US Open Final, the sportsbooks were predicting a match that would be fairly even with every chance of going the distance. As can be seen here the odds on both sides of each market are much more even which is idea for the bookmakers. A bettor that picks correctly will still find a reasonable return.
As it turned out Djokovic was a fairly comfortable 3 set winner and the under bet won on both the set betting markets.
Total Game Market
The total games market works in the same way the total set betting market does except that the total games gives the sportsbooks much more flexibility in choosing the actual line they post.
Key things to note:
- Each set has a minimum of 6 games as a player is required to win 6 to claim the set.
- A set must be won by at least 2 games. Common scores are 6-4 (10 games) or 6-3 (9 games)
- A set can be won 7-5 (12 games) if service is broken at 5-5 or 6-5
- If a set reaches 6-6 then a tiebreak is played. The set will finish 7-6 (13 games)
- The player serving first is critical. A break of serve to the person serving first means the set will finish 6-3 (9 games) and not 6-4 (10 games). The difference of one game could be make or break for a totals bet.
Therefore one set can have anywhere between 6 and 13 games with many nuances which can change the totals figure at the end.
In the example at the beginning of this article (ATP Barcelona final) the sportsbooks offered an over/under total of 21.5. On closer inspection the match would have to play out in one of two ways for the overs total to pay.
- A two set match with a competitive scoreline. For example 6-4, 7-5 (22 games). If the first set was to finish 6-3 then the second set would have to go to a tiebreak to get to 22 games.
- A three set match with pretty much any scoreline would achieve the overs total. The losing player in each set would only have to win a combined total of 5 games. Highly likely in a match that has gone the distance. Eg 6-2, 1-6, 6-2 would still be an overs win.
To successfully bet on games totals, some knowledge of the weapons of the two players is needed. If both are excellent servers but do not return serve as well then it could be expected that breaks of serve will be few and far between. This will push sets out towards the higher game totals like 7-5 or 7-6. On the other hand a player who can return serve well may be able to push more receiving points into longer rallies and potentially produce more breakpoint opportunities. Breaks of serve don’t usually point towards large game totals.
Games totals are very popular in-game wagering markets. As the totals figure can be very fluid during matches the live odds tend to fluctuate. Volatility in live odds attracts bettors as they see plenty of value opportunities.
Grand Slam Effect on Games Total Betting
Again similar to the set betting, the ‘best of five sets’ in men’s grand slam tennis pushes the games totals out. Typically games totals sit between 27 and 40 games. A straight sets victory is unlikely to go much higher than 32 games, unless the sets all go to 7-5 or a tiebreak. Not usually the case. A four set match will top out around 36 to 42 games and a five set match will run into the low 40s and above. Of course there are exceptions to these totals depending on how one sided each set is.
Momentum swings in grand slam matches can be wild. The extra length to the matches allows players to work each other out during the game and as a result a player that appeared on top for the first part of the match can all of a sudden look like they may never win another point. A match that looked as though it was going to end quickly can soon become a 4 or five set thriller. Another reason why ingame or live wagering is so incredibly popular with the sport of tennis.
Tennis Parlays
The parlay bet is widely used in tennis betting. A parlay, otherwise known as a combination, multi, accumulator or all-up, allows the bettor to roll the winnings and original stake from one bet into the next bet in order to achieve large returns. The decimal odds on each leg are multiplied together to to give the final payout odds for the parlay. If any one leg or option loses then the entire parlay is lost. High risk, high reward betting which attracts the amatuer and pro bettors alike.
In the tennis betting world the moneyline market is typically the most popular bet type included in parlays. This is because it is only reliant on the selected player winning the match. Bettors are able to link up a series of underdogs and favorites to achieve the risk level and return they are after. Often times bettors prefer to parlay three strong favorites together, who just need to win, instead of betting on the set market for just one player and risking that being wrong. Like all betting styles tennis parlays used correctly can provide deep value and great returns, use them incorrectly though, and the sportsbook gains a huge edge which generally doesn’t point to long term success for the gambler.
The following is an example of a well constructed parlay from the ATP Tour event on the clay in Munich:
| Match | Selection | Moneyline Odds | Decimal Odds |
| Wednesday 7:00am EST Round of 16Roberto Bautista Agut (4) v Rudolf Molleker | Bautista Agut (4) | -400 | 1.25 |
| Wednesday 9:00am ESTRound of 16Philipp Kohlschreiber v Karen Khachanov (2) | Khachanov (2) | +124 | 2.24 |
| Thursday 4:00am ESTQuarterfinalAlexander Zverev (1) v Christian Garin | Zverev (1) | -300 | 1.34 |
| Parlay Odds | +275 | 3.75 |
The above example is a classic of a tennis parlay. Three seeded players up against three unseeded players linked together in a moneyline parlay over two days. The overall odds of +275 or 3.75 decimal give a sizeable return. A $100 bet would yield a profit of $275 and an overall return of $375. Not bad.
Interestingly Number 2 seed Karen Khachanov is a small underdog despite coming up against an unseeded Philipp Kohlschreiber. Presumably this is because Kohlschreiber leads the head to head record 2-1 and is playing in his home country of Germany. The Khachanov inclusion provides value to the parlay bet and is what blows the odds out closer to 4 to 1.
Spreading the parlay over two days with a strong favorite as the last leg also allows the bettor the chance to hedge should the parlay still be alive coming into the second day. Let’s imagine a $100 investment, if the first two legs have landed on day 1 (Wednesday) the the bettor is sitting on an effective stake plus winnings balance of $280. On day 2 (Thursday) the Number 1 seed Alexander Zverev is up against Christian Garin paying just -300 or 1.34 decimal. If Zverev wins the bettor stands to increase their winnings by another $95. At this point if the bettor was to take just $50 of those future winnings and invest that on Garin pre match at +225 or 3.25 decimal they would guarantee a return regardless of the result.
| If Zverev wins | If Garin Wins |
| Payout = (Stake x Decimal Odds) – Hedge Bet = ($100 x 3.75) – $50 = $375 – $50 = $325 | Payout = (Hedge Bet x Odds) – Parlay Bet = ($50 x 3.25) – $100 = $162.50 – $50 = $62.50 |
| A profit of $225 | A profit of $12.50 |
While the overall profit of $12.50 on Garin doesn’t seem too enticing, the fact that the original $100 stake is returned is reassurance for the bettor. Clearly a Zverev win is still the best outcome but should he lose the bettor fights on another day.
A similar scenario plays out with parlay betting on tennis futures markets. A very popular bet type when it comes to the four grand slam tournaments. The futures betting section of this article will look more deeply at the futures parlay.
For a deeper look into parlay betting in all sports check out our article!
In-Game/Live Tennis Betting
Tennis provides one of sports best live betting (In-game) wagering opportunities. With matches sometimes lasting several hours and breaks in play at change of ends and between sets the bettor has time to weigh up their options, and the available markets, before jumping in. As the game of tennis is so statistically measurable, sportsbooks offer countless live markets on all the bet types mentioned previously in this article.
The momentum swings in tennis, particularly best of five matches give sophisticated bettors a chance to take advantage of live markets and ‘trade’ odds to lock in guaranteed profits. A great example of an opportunistic in-game wagering strategy is when a favored player goes down an early break of serve in a set. Often their odds wil drift and this when the smart money pounces. Much like a stock market trader who sees a stock they like drop in trade, they buy more to take advantage of the dip. If the bettor truly believes the favored player will win then seizing an opportunity when their odds drift is critical to profitable live tennis betting.
The strategies used to maximise live tennis betting winnings are worthy of their own article and well worth looking into for any sports bettor wanting to get serious about betting on tennis. The draw back, as with any in-game wagering is the need to be watching the game intently. If you are passionate about tennis, and have the time, then devoting three hours to viewing a single tennis match may not be an issue but for many recreational bettors, wagering on tennis is a hobby. In that case the gambler may be better off restricting the live betting to the prime time games.
To learn more about live betting check out our article!
Futures Betting
Tennis futures betting is an incredibly vibrant wagering market, particularly when it comes to the four grand slam events. The handle on the mens and womens outright winner markets are enormous pre-tournament, are boosted after the official draws are released, and betting continues during the tournament. The two week format for each grand slam event means that bettors will pour into the market throughout the first week (early rounds) as form lines begin to reveal themselves.
Sportsbooks will typically open a market on each of the grand slam ‘outright winner’ markets soon after the current year’s event has been finalised. For example the US Open outright winner market will be open sometime in mid-september, just days after the champion has been crowned in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Sportsbooks prefer to frame the market early as any money they take at this early stage they hold for close to 12 months. Betting on these markets at this early stage carries high risk, even if the bettor spots some apparent value.
The Tennis Futures Betting Example
Below is a classic example of a futures market. This is the 2019 French Open Men’s Champion market as it was about 20 days before the first serve was hit in earnest on the clay at Roland Garros. The top 9 options are listed.
| 2019 Mens French Open Champion | ||
| Players | American Odds | Decimal Odds |
| Rafael Nadal | +125 | 2.25 |
| Novak Djokovic | +250 | 3.50 |
| Dominic Thiem | +400 | 5.00 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2000 | 21.00 |
| Roger Federer | +2000 | 21.00 |
| Stan Wawrinka | +3300 | 34.00 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +3300 | 34.00 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +3300 | 34.00 |
How would a serious tennis bettor approach this market?
In the above example there are three clear favorites. The winner of the most grand slam events in history, the great Roger Federer, is not one of them. This may come as a surprise to many, but is due to the fact that the French Open is played on a clay court surface. This surface is slow, meaning the ball holds up and favors strong baseline players. While Federer is a master at all court tennis his effectiveness at the net, of which he is close to the best all time, is nullified by the slow surface. In many ways he is outgunned in Paris. Having said that he has won the French Open once (2009). He is probably at shorter odds that he should be purely because he is Roger Federer.
The three favorites, are actually well clear of others in the betting. They are clay court experts (Djokovic less so) and in rich veins of form. The vast majority of the money would be expected to come for them. Nadal in particular ho has won this tournament an eye watering eleven times. The lesser known player here is Thiem, who has a remarkable head to head record against Nadal on clay, yet is quite unproven in the later stages of a grand slam.
Betting the Futures Favorites
Many bettors might choose to stay away from Nadal until the draw is released but might look for value on Thiem who could easily shorten as the tournament progresses. Nadal is unlikely to shorten too much until the late stages should he still be in it. An option here could be to lay Nadal and bet on both Djokovic and Thiem in equal amounts. That way a profit is realised if either wins.
Tennis Futures Betting Hedge
The above market offers many wonderful hedge betting opportunities. The art to this however is picking a value proposition early on who may make a deep run. For example a pre-tournament betting on Zverev +2000 would become hedge opportunity should he reach the semi-finals. If he advanced that far in the tournament he may come in to as short as +500 (depending on the make up of opponents). At that point a bettor could have a small hedge against him in the semi-final and/or the final should progress there.
Other Tennis Futures Bet Types
Sportsbooks will offer a number of other futures bet types in the lead up to a tournament. These may include:
- Mens/Womens Champion double, where a bettor picks both winners.
- Mens or Womens Quinella – the two players to make the final in either draw.
- To Make the Final – a player ha to make the final for the bet to win.
- Stage of Elimination – selected player’s odds to progress past each stage.
Get in the Game
Tennis betting should be on the radar of all serious sports bettors. It offers a multitude of markets to suit all styles, year round betting and sensational in-game opportunities. Start small, develop your favored strategies and turn yourself a profit!
