Call it what you like; Soccer, the World game, the Round Ball Game or simply just Football, there is no doubt that the FIFA World Cup is the most popular single sporting event in the world. Television ratings, advertising budget and most importantly betting handle are proof of that. No other single sporting festival can match its global appeal. Played on every continent, by every nation, navigating a 2 year, edge of your seat, qualification campaign, culminating in the 6 week main event tournament. Just getting there is a feat in itself. If you think the FIFA member nations have it tough, imagine the slog that the avid soccer betting expert endures turning the soccer dream into a money making bonanza.
While the FIFA World Cup is the biggest soccer tournament on Earth, it is not the only one. In fact, betting on tournament soccer can keep a serious bettor busy all year round. Getting an understanding of what makes tournament soccer different to the week in, week out grind of the big domestic leagues will help any sports bettor avoid the rookie mistakes that cost them money!
What is Tournament Soccer?
There are numerous major soccer tournaments played world wide. They are often referred to as cup tournaments due to the fact teams ultimately play for a cup.
These include:
FIFA World Cup – Mens (48 Teams) and Womens (24 teams) National Teams
FIFA Member Confederation Tournaments – Mens and Womens National Teams
FIFA Confederations Cup – Mens and Womens National Teams
Olympic Games – Mens and Womens National Teams
European Champions League – Club Teams
Europa League — Club Teams
Countless Domestic Cups – FA Cup, MLS Cup.
Tournament soccer is different to regular soccer leagues. The format of tournament soccer is unique in that it is played in stages. In the initial group stage, teams play in pools (mini conferences) and the 4 teams play each other, round robin style, trying to finish as high as possible to qualify for the knock-out stage. Teams record wins, losses or rather anticlimactically, draws (tie). After the group stage teams who are successful progress to the knockout stage. These changes impact heavily on the betting style and it needs to be flexible as the competition progresses.
For example as the group stages unfold, often a drawn game is enough for one team (or both) in a match to qualify for the knock-out stage. They are happy to just pass it around, maintain possession, play a defensive style, stay solid at the back and only commit a few players forward when the opportunity arrives. They focus on avoiding injury, and yellow/red cards, knowing there are bigger fish to fry once the knock-out games start. Clearly, a bettor trying to stay in tune with this can be a nightmare.
How is Betting Different in the Knock-Out Stages?
When the knockout stage arrives, it is then that the competition heats up. A loss means a team’s campaign is over. In the case of the World Cup, a nation goes into mourning knowing it may be another 4 years before they get the chance to do it all again. It is do or die soccer. High stakes indeed.
The betting ramifications are huge. All of a sudden there are no draws. A winner will be found right there and then. Someone will be going home. Teams caught in a deadlock at the end of 90 mins now have to endure extra time (15 mins each way) and if the scores are still level the game is decided via the dreaded penalty shootout.
Due to Soccer’s popularity and global appeal, in particular when it comes to high stakes tournament soccer like the World Cup, there is a myriad of betting options on offer from sportsbooks. Why wouldn’t there be? With billions of sets of eyes glued to the action the insatiable appetite to bet on sudden death soccer is ever present if not slightly addictive.
However, for the average sports betting non soccer fan, wondering what all the hype and fuss is about, and therefore wanting a piece of the action, it is usually at the knockout stages where their interest is piqued. It is now that they begin to invest their time to tune in, this usually means they invest their betting bankroll as well. If this sounds like you, then know, it is possible to do minimal research, bet with the heart and patriotically kick your nation home. Hopefully banking some cash in the process.
To do this you must avoid one simple but costly mistake!
The BIG Mistake.
The tournament soccer knockout stages are big trap for new bettors. A simple mistake can mean you are high fiving yourself, thinking you have banked some cash and be asking yourself when is the next game!? Then you check your sportsbook account, and find tragically your winnings aren’t there. That sinking feeling can quickly morph into anger or frustration. Now before you get on the keyboard and start demanding your winnings from your thieving sportsbook, stop, breath, and check the fine print on the bet you placed..
Did you bet your team to ‘WIN’, or simply to ‘TO QUALIFY’ for the next round?
See, when betting on soccer those two results seem like the same thing but are actually quite different.
The ‘Win-Draw-Win” market clearly has three options – Team A wins, Team B wins or the game ends in a draw (tie). The odds reflect the three clear options and therefore are longer in each case. The ‘To Qualify” market has just the two options. Team A qualifies for the next stage or Team B goes through.
It is here in the knockout stages, where the one minute handicapper, places a rushed bet, probably in between putting the kids to bed and taking the dog outside to pee. They bet their team to win in this market, as hoped, the team goes on to win, but in extra time. And now for the kick in the guts, all that extra time cheering, nail biting and screaming is wasted when it comes to your back pocket. The bet doesn’t pay!
Note: the “WIN-DRAW-WIN” market is only paid out on the result at the end of regular time. In soccer that is 90 mins + any injury time decided by the match officials. If the match finishes in a draw then your team didn’t win (in regular time), in regards to the betting market, it is in fact a drawn match. Ouch. If you want to bet on your team ‘to qualify for the next round then you need to make sure you have actually bet that market.
On a side note, if you intend to bet on your team to progress (to qualify) and your sportsbook doesn’t offer this market (surprisingly some don’t), you need to find one that does. Your sports betting business is a much sort after commodity, it has value and as a kick back you need options. Hey you may even get sign up bonus for opening a new account with a sportsbook who offers you the markets you need. It can’t hurt!
2 Smaller Betting Mistakes to Avoid in the Knockout Stages
- Extra Time Goals DO NOT Count to Over/Under Total
A simple yet costly error. Any goals total market is resulted at 90 minutes. Goals scored in extra time (overtime) do not count to game totals. A painful mistake to learn when you have loaded up on the overs, regulation time offers very little, and then the goals flow after fatigue has set in during extra time.
2. Betting on 1-0 “Correct Score’ Result
At face value betting on the 1-0 result in the knockout stages seems like a logical thought process. Tight game, sudden death, a team takes a one goal lead ‘then parks the bus’. That is they send all their men back, crowd the back half and kill the clock to win by the slimmest of margins. Nope!
In knockout soccer, when a team goes down a goal they switch their style to attack mode. They throw their men forward in the hopes of getting an equaliser, after all, if they don’t, they are going home. This not only increases their chance of scoring but the push forward makes them vulnerable at the back. The game opens up and goals are scored.
In the 2018 FIFA World Cup, during the knockout stage 46 goals were scored in 14 games. An average of 2.87 goals per game. In fact the 1-0 result occurred just once, Sweden over Switzerland. It was a goal midway through the second half to Sweden and they and they were able to hold on to win. Switzerland had 50% more shots on goal and relentlessly attacked. Despite it landing, the 1-0 scoreline was very unlikely indeed.
Steer clear of the 1-0 ‘Correct Score’ result!
3 Profitable Tips to Consider
- Knockout Stage Double Dip
Considering the knockout stage delivers a winner at all costs, then why not bet the regulation time draw at odds of around +250, and then double dip by taking your team “To Qualify”. That way you have in some ways hedged against your original draw bet, but left yourself open to cash on both bets!! Banking profit twice in the same game.
2. The ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ Gift
The anytime goalscorer market, as the name suggests, pays out when an individual player you have wagered on scores a goal at any stage throughout the match Not backing the teams “coolest over the ball” penalty taker for “any time scorer”. now with VAR spot free kicks are more common and this is a gift for the best goal scorer in the team. And this count towards “any time scorer even if free kicks wasnt against them.
3. The Halftime/Fulltime Market
This market is a cracker! Knockout soccer provide great opportunity in the halftime fulltime market, that is, a market where you pick the halftime result and the full time result. Clearly the halftime score has a bearing on the full time score and therefore there is a definite strategy to employ when picking this market.
The premise of betting on the draw at halftime and the win (to your selected side) at fulltime is that the early stages of the game will provide a conservative risk free approach from both teams as they feel each other out. Often this brings about a circumspect first half. In the second half often one often the better team will begin to assert their authority for two reasons. Firstly they are simply better but secondly they are less likely to want the game to go to extra time and/or a penalty shootout as this levels the playing field.
Therefore back the Draw-Win (for your team) result. Look for odds of around +400 for the favorite and higher for the underdog.
The Game Starts Now!
If you are a mad sports fan who loves pressure of high level elite sport, the unscripted drama of the supremely paid athletes on a truly global stage, then knockout tournament soccer is a tran you should jump on board!
New bettors, maybe start by forgetting all the exotics and just focus on betting on the outright result. As you become more familiar with the markets expand your horizons. Remember in knockout soccer, spend the extra moment to make sure you know the conditions of the bet you are placing. Some simple strategy could see you banking profit and having a heck of a lot of fun doing it.