If you’re a sports bettor, recreational or serious, do yourself a.favor and take a close look at betting on the great game of Australian Football. Its wildly popular in Australia and is in the slate of betting offerings at all legalised sportsbooks right across North America.
Why? Because it’s the fourth most attended domestic sports league in the world. The over 6 million fans that walk through the turnstiles annually must be onto something!
The best thing for a North American bettor is that the biggest betting market, the Australian Football League (AFL) is on at a user friendly time. Smack bang in the middle of the overnight and morning US sports dead patch.
Time Zones are a sports bettors best friend!
When it comes to betting on the AFL the Point Spread or ‘the line’ as it’s known in Australia, it is one of the most heavily bet markets, and for good reason.
In the next 5 minutes you will learn how to bet the Australian Football Point Spread market and make it a staple in your betting repertoire!
Before you start betting check out our sign up bonuses with PointsBet and UniBet. Kick off your rugby betting experience with a few free swings!
Want To Bet More Than Just The Point Spread?
For everything you need to know about betting all other aspects of Australian Football, including a ton of strategies, you need to check out our comprehensive guide.
So What is The Australian Football Point Spread
Just like Point Spread betting in US sports, the Aussie Rules point spread is a handicap market. It aims to even out the teams by adding points or subtracting points from a team’s score before deciding the winner.
It is a very pure form of betting as it requires bettors to take a shot at what is essentially a coin flip market.
The AFL point spread market is best described by the following example from the DraftKings Sportsbook
Lets break this example down into the things you just have to know:
The Odds
In Australia, sportsbooks will use the Decimal Odds system to frame their market, but here in the United States you can expect to be betting with American Odds. Simply put American Odds describe either how much a better needs to wager to win $100 (minus odds) or how much they will win if they wager $100 (plus odds).
In the above game we can see the Carlton Blues are on the road against the Richmond Tigers. It is important to note that in Australia the home team will be listed first but as this is taken from DraftKings, the home team is listed second, as is protocol in the US. If you are betting with a book outside the US it’s best to check which method the book is using!
In this example the Point Spread is listed as the ‘spread’. The spread has Carlton +25.5 points, meaning if a bettor wagered on that outcome they would need Carlton to lose by 25 points or less or simply win the game outright.
On the flipside the Tigers are -25.5 points against the spread and for a bettor to cash here the tigers would need to win not only win but do so by at least 26 points.
Needless to say the Tigers are heavy favorites to win the game but overcoming that kind of ‘start’ is a far bigger challenge!
The other market listed in the image is the moneyline, which we will not cover here, but you can read all about in our dedicated Australian Football Moneyline article.
The handicap or the spread allows sportsbooks to offer the same (or at least similar) odds for both teams. In this case those odds are -112.
At odds of -112 a bettor would need to invest $112 to make a profit of $100 and a total return of $212.
Truth be known odds of -112 on a point spread market is not very generous. As a general rule, when betting the point spread look for -110 or better.
For a more in depth look at how to read sports odds check out our simple guide right here!
When Might You Bet Odds Worse Than -110?
Sometimes sportsbooks may offer odds that are not identical for both teams. This occurs when the point spread line is lingering around a key number (More about them later).
In this case they will alter the odds slightly to reflect the fact that if they move the line in either direction it will encourage a lopsided flow of money to one side of the market or the other. This is not ideal for a book so they alter the odds to keep things in balance.
In situations like that it may be ok to take odds that are worse than -110, such as -112 or -115 if the compensation is a better number against the spread.
The challenge for any better is to find a line that seems out of step with your perception of how you believe the game will turn out and bet accordingly!
The Scoring
If you’re going to bet the Australian Football Point Spread you absolutely must know how the scoring works. Aussie Rules is a unique game but thankfully the scoring is actually quite simple.
For a full run down on the ins and out of the game you should check out our comprehensive guide to all things Betting Australian Football.
For now we look at an excerpt from our Australian Football Moneyline article.
The goal posts look like this:
| Mode of Scoring | What It’s Worth | How It Happens |
| Goal | 6 Points | When a player KICKS the ball between the larger middle posts and the ball crosses the goal line either bouncing or on the fly without being touched. There is no other way to score a goal. |
| Behind | 1 Point | When the ball crosses goal line between either of the two side goals in any manner (ie kicked, carried through or off hands) If the ball crosses between the larger posts without being kicked (ie off hands or carried through). When the ball hits either of the two larger posts. |
Typically teams score somewhere between 75 and 100 points in a game although weird stuff can happen and scores can be lower or even much higher.
A team does not have to kick more goals to win they simply need to score more points. It does happen from time to time where a team kicks less goals but scores more behinds and wins the game.
Goals and behinds are referred to as scoring shots and therefore the team with more scoring shots would expect to win….but they don’t always!
The Key Numbers That Affect Aussie Rules Point Spread Betting
Like all handicap betting there are always key numbers that act as thresholds that bettors look for. In Aussie Rules the key numbers float around multiples of 6.
The reason being goals are worth 6 points and they represent the highest single scoring play available to a team. For example an 18.5 point spread favors the team getting the points because it means the favorite will need to win by a minimum of four scoring shots. 3 goals and 1 behind.
Numbers become less key as the expected margin gets higher. For example a 36.5 point line is less key than a 24.5 point line because the existence of the behind (1 point) creates plenty of variations away from exact multiples of 6.
By the time you get over 6 or 7 goals margins the key numbers are as much psychological as anything. Of course the bigger the number the better, if you’re on the dog!
Here is a simple guide to help you understand more about handicap size:
| Margin of Victory | Game Description |
| 6 or less points | Close game! A one score margin means a bounce of the ball here or there and everything changes. |
| 7-24 points | A hard fought win. Anywhere between 2 and 4 goals is a tough game that probably only had a few deciding plays. |
| 24 – 42 points | Comfortable win. Anytime a teams wins by between 4 and 7 goals they have controlled large periods of the game. Clearly the better team. |
| 42+ points | A win by more than seven goals is a big win. If the margin blows out to over 10 then that’s a beat down in anyone’s books. If this is offered as a point spread line then the books has no faith at all in the dog. |
Is Overtime Played in Australian Football?
Strangely in regular season games in the AFL overtime, or extra time as it is known in Australia, is NOT played. If the scores are tied at the end of the game then the result is declared a ‘draw’ (think tie).
If you’re betting the point spread and the game ends in a draw you better hope you were on the team plus the points (underdog).
Note: Overtime will be played in playoff games (the finals) as it is essential that an overall winner is decided on that day. In this case the point spread will include overtime.
Should You Bet Point Spread Favorites or Underdogs?
As in all betting there is no one size fits all rule when it comes to the Aussie rules point spread. One angle we like to take is that the powers that be at the AFL want the competition to be close. They are open about that fact.
Evening up the league is done through the use of salary caps and an annual draft. What this does for bettors is open up opportunity. The hallmark of an even competition is inconsistent results. Expect the unexpected.
For this reason we like to lean toward the point spread underdog, particularly if they are at home. Not all the time, but we pay particular attention when that scenario arises.
Before you start betting check out our sign up bonuses with PointsBet and UniBet. Kick off your rugby betting experience with a few free swings!
The Game Starts Now!
Aussie Rules is a truly fantastic sport to watch and bet on. Add it to your betting repertoire if you’re game. You won’t regret it.
Good luck and as always, gamble responsibly!