If you bet on sports for any length of time you will without a doubt come across the Over/Under market, after all, it is one of the most bet markets in all of sports. The Over Under market is simple in its mechanism but supremely difficult to master. Its a staple of the betting public and getting to know its intricacies is the first step in adding it to your betting repertoire.
What is Over and Under Betting? Over Under Betting is a market that usually relates to the total points scored in a game. Sportsbooks set a number, called the line, and bettors wager on whether the total game points will finish over or under that figure. The Over Under market can also be offered on other measurable in-game statistics such as passing yards or assist and rebounds.
What Do the Over and Under Odds Mean?
Typically the odds are listed at -110 American (1.91 decimal). This means a bettor would need to invest $110 to win a profit of $100. Over Under odds can vary depending on the sportsbook offering the market and the volume of money that has been bet on either side of that market.
Sportsbooks will either vary the odds or vary the actual over under line being offered if a disproportionate amount of money has been bet on one side of the market. Preferably they will adjust the over under total, but in the case of the odds being adjusted (juiced by the betting public) it’s not unusual to see them move out to -112 or -115 or move in to -105 and on rare occasions even +100 (double your money).
If the odds vary too far from -110, then it is most likely that the sportsbook will adjust the over under total allowing the odds to return back to parity.
For more on how to read sport odds check out our article.
How Much Do You Win On Over Under Bets?
The Over Under market is a 50/50 market meaning there are only two possible outcomes. It would seem logical that if a bettor was to win a 50/50 bet then they would return double their money. This is not the case when betting Over Under markets due to the need of the sportsbook to take a cut of the money wagered (the handle). This cut is called the ‘vig’ or vigorish.
Assuming the sportsbook has attracted a close to even amount of money on both sides of the market, their vig on a -110 market is about 5%. To overcome the bookmakers margin a bettor who bets long term on the Over Under market needs to win 52.38% of the time to breakeven (assuming a consistent bet size). A win rate above 55% will return the bettor very healthy profit over time.
Of course when betting on 50/50 markets bettors will over time endure winning and losing streaks. An effective staking strategy is needed to prevent a prolonged run of losses sending your bankroll to the wall.
Statistically speaking on 100 Over Under bets, a run of 6 consecutive losses at some point is normal. A longer losing run is of course possible. An effective staking strategy is essential for any bettor looking to survive betting long term on this market.
The Take Home: The best way of improving your chances of winning more often when betting on the Over Under total is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks. This allows you to find the most favorable points total (they do vary a lot and often) as well as a decent price. Odds of -110 are about as far as you should go into the minus money realm. If you look around, you may sometimes be able to grab something slightly better than -110. With long term profitability an ongoing grind, getting the best of what is on offer is critical.
How Do Sportsbook Decide on an Over Under Number?
They use a lot of math, experience and intuition. The benefit of the over under total is that is heavily statistically based. Long term scoring averages and patterns are well established. Extra filters can be applied to these such as scoring at a particular venue, in certain weather conditions, against particular opponent or the inclusion or exclusion of key players. There is some serious number crunching to do.
Sportsbooks will set an ‘opening number’ and then if needed vary this as game time approaches. Many factors influence the variation of the number post its initial setting. One of the biggest is the intent of the betting public. If the public vote with their dollars and bet heavily to one side of the market then the books will adjust to suit the bettors intent.
Long term Over Under bettors have usually established their own theories and systems to calculate a possible over under line. When their perceived number does not match the sportsbooks they will pounce. Many sharp bettors are ready for totals to be posted so they can access ‘weak’ numbers before the books have time to adjust.
Often times sportsbook will pay close attention to who is placing the bet. If they perceive the bettor to be very successful at betting the over under market, they may adjust their line in reaction. I guess you could say it’s a roundabout way of paying for information.
The Take Home: The Over Under market is big business and consistently getting the best of a sportsbooks number is not easy. Respect their decisions and be selective about which numbers you attack. Over time the weakness becomes easier to spot and your win rate will improve.
What is Does .5 mean in an Over Under Bet?
Many times on Over Under markets sportsbooks will list a total with an included half point. For example on an NFL game the over under line may be 48.5 points. Clearly it is impossible for a team to score 0.5 points and therefore hitting the 48.5 points exactly is impossible. So why is the total listed like this?
The half point, or the ‘hook’ as it is commonly known, is used by bookmakers to prevent the possibility of a tied result. Let’s imagine for a minute that the half point in the above example was not offered and the total was a neat 48 points instead. In this case a final score like 27 – 21 would land the game total smack on 48 points. At that point neither the over or the under would have hit and the sportsbook would be required to refund all bets.
The Take Home: With the sport betting industry becoming increasingly sophisticated and odds makers becoming very efficient, it is incredible the amount of times a bet is decided by that measly half point. It’s a fine line between winning and losing when you bet the Over Under Totals and at times it can feel like the cruelest bet type in the business. Hang tough. Those bad beats will even out with back door wins. Keep your emotions in check and you will make better decisions.
What Happens If The Over Under is Exact?
If a market is offered without the hook or half point it becomes possible for the final scoreline to land on that exact total. When this occurs bettors will receive a refund. In the betting game it is known as a push, much the way it is in blackjack when a player ties with the dealer. A push simply means your money is returned.
While there are times that a bettor may feel like they dodged a bullet when their team scores late points to force a push much of the time it’s a bit of an empty feeling. A push is clearly better than a loss, but it’s not a win. The sports betting game is all about getting wins.
Interestingly sportsbooks try to avoid the scenario where a push occurs as it effectively means they have made no money. As already discussed the mechanism for making money on this bet type is to include a vig on the payouts to the winning bettors. If no one wins and all money is returned then there is no vig taken either. For that reason sportsbooks prefer to use the half point to ensure a winner is decided.
Why would a sportsbook ever bother putting up a total without the half point? The main reason for this is if the over under game total lands on a key number (ie a common multiple of the games scoring plays) then adding (or subtracting) a half point to the total may skew the betting handle too far in one direction. At that point the book may decide to remain on the flat score without the half point and take the risk of a push.
The Take Home: Look out for a half point that works to your advantage. For example if you are betting unders ideally you want the half point to push the line above a key number (eg 48.5 as opposed to 48). This subtle change could be the difference between a push and a win. Turning pushes into wins is how longterm bettors hit above the magic 52.38% win rate.
Does Over Under Include Overtime?
Over and Under points totals include overtime. Being aware of this is of utmost importance. Depending on the sport you are betting on, scoring in overtime can be quite heavy and more often than not it guarantees the over total being a winner.
Imagine for a minute you have placed a bet on the Over Game Total market in a regular season NBA game. The game total line is installed at 227.5.
Now let’s imagine that very late in the fourth quarter, with only seconds remaining, scores are locked up at 108. The game total to this point is 216 points. The over bet looks beaten but isn’t quite done yet. It desperately needs the game to go to overtime because at that point its easy to imagine another 12 points being scored in the extra added minutes. If the game goes to overtime the Overs bettors probably cash.
The Take Home: It is for this reason that the Over Under game totals in games that are expected to be close are sometimes marginally inflated. The risk of overtime is increased and that favors the overs. In my opinion fade overtime and take the unders because the game total may be slightly higher due to the expected close result.
What is an Alternate Over Under?
Alternate Over Under betting markets are offered on all major sports where the traditional market sees plenty of action. The purpose of alternate markets is to attract bettors to longer odds (more risk) or the perceived safer option which will have more generous number but a much smaller return.
Essentially the alternate Over Under Totals allow bettor to choose their level of risk.
Below is an example of some alternate Over Under markets:
As can be seen here four alternate line options are given to the bettor. In this case the Alternate Total A and C favor the Over, with B and D favoring the Under result. Options A and B utilise the half point, with C and D using whole numbers and bringing in the possibility of a push.
Interestingly the ‘spread’ between the highest alternate total (219 points) and the lowest alternate total (214.5 Points) is only 5 points or about 2% of the total game scoring. Not much variation considering the accompanying change in odds. For a point of reference the actual Over Under Total offered on the above game was 216 points.
The Take Home: If you are confident about your analysis of a number, maybe look to the alternate lines to grab some extra juice. Likewise if you are a bit wary of a number maybe seek out insurance by taking an alternate number at lower odds. As they say a winner at any price is better than a loser.
Should I Be PointsBetting on Over Under Markets?
Taking the longer odds on alternate lines markets is a bet to beat the books by more than just a point of half point. If you become skilled at betting the Over Under market and you should consider PointsBetting as an option.
The Take Home: PointsBetting is an exciting form of betting brought to the market by the Pointsbet Sportsbook. It rewards the bettors for being ‘more right’ on markets like the over under. It is well worth a look. A complete guide on what PointsBetting is and how you can profit from this style of betting can be found right here!
The Game Starts Now!
Over and Under betting is a market style that all bettors should get to know. While it may not be a staple for all bettors it’s worth adding to the repertoire as it favors opportunistic bettors who see value and pounce. Not to mention its a white knuckled ride that is high on entertainment value for any bettor!
Good Luck and as always gamble responsibly!
