There are many elements to Baseball that undeniably make it ‘The Great American Pastime’. The wonderful summer atmosphere, the crack of the bat, the smell of the hot dogs and nachos wafting across the field and of course that fact it is on every single day! For the avid online sports bettor it is the last of these that truly makes baseball the highlight of summer.
Betting and winning on baseball is difficult but not impossible. It can be highly profitable for those who know how. The sharp bettors love baseball season. With so many MLB games across the summer, sports bettors need a strategy to win. Read on to find out how to bet on baseball and win.
Understanding the Baseball Betting Opportunities.
Major League Baseball (MLB) provides copious amounts of opportunity for the professional and recreational bettor to find some action. The MLB season is some 2430 regular season games long (plus the postseason), with games ranging across a variety of start times and time zones. On any one of these games, online sportsbooks offer upwards of 40 markets including moneyline, handicap, over and under, total runs, doubles markets, player props and many more. If there is such a thing as a sport with too many markets for an online sports bettor to wager on, then perhaps it is the MLB.
The following example will be used to explain the three most popular bet types.
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees | Moneyline | Run Line +1.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | +190 | +100 |
| New York Yankees | -230 | -120 |
| Totals | Over 8.5 Runs | Under 8.5 Runs |
| -105 | -115 | |
Baseball Moneyline
The simplest and most popular MLB betting market. The odds reflect a team’s chance of winning the game outright. This bet type:
- Includes extra innings
- Pays on the winning team regardless of margin
- Game becomes official after 4.5 innings if the home team is winning and 5 innings if the away team is winning.
In the above example the New York Yankees are favorites as they have the minus odds. The -230 means the bettor would have to stake $230 to win a profit of $100 and a total payout of $330. The Royals have the plus odds meaning a bet of $100 would pay a profit of $190 and a total payout of $290.
This form of betting is the most popular with gamblers as the scoring is typically low in comparison to other major sports like the NBA, NFL and College Football, which makes handicap betting less popular.
Baseball Run Line
The run line is a form of handicap betting and is the most common of its type in baseball betting. In some ways iit replicates the points spread in football betting. The +1.5 run line allows sportsbooks to offer odds on the favored team to win by 2 or more runs and the underdog to lose the game by 1 run or to win the game outright.
Essentially the +1.5 runs is added to the underdog’s score or taken away from the favorite’s score. The wager is resulted after that simple calculation. It is a way of leveling the playing field so that both sides of the bet have a similar chance of winning. It is alot of fun for recreational bettors, hence its popularity.
In the above example the Kansas City Royal are the underdogs and therefore the +1.5 run line is added to their score. If the Royals were to go on a lose the game 6 to 5 the bet would be deemed a winner as the +1.5 would essentially make their score 6.5. In this case they are at +100 meaning a bet of $100 on the run line would pay a $100 profit with a total payout of $200.
Baseball Over/Under Total
As the name suggests the over/under total in baseball betting offers bettors the chance to bet on the total runs scored in a game. Sportsbooks will offer an over/under figure for the total runs in the game. The wager will payout if the bettor has selected the correct side of the over under line.
In the above example the over under total is at 8.5 runs. The .5 is crucial as it prevents a push (a tie), where the sports books would be required to refund bets. The .5 in sports betting parlance is commonly referred to as the hook. This elimination of the push means that the bookmakers can comfortably and predictably build in their vig (profit margin) or edge. The market essentially becomes a coin flip, albeit with quite a few more variables deciding the result, yet the books in this case are not paying plus money odds on either side of the wager.
The 8.5 over and under total factors in the score from both teams. If the Yankees were to prevail 6 to 3 then the overs bettors would cash as the total runs in the game was 9. Likewise if they were to win the game 5 to 3 the unders bettors would cash as they match total was only 8. It is irrelevant as to who wins the game, whether they were favourites or underdogs, the margin of victory, or if the hot dogs tasted good. It simply comes down to how many runs were scored.
Interestingly an over/unders total bet is only counted if the game reaches middle of the 9th if the home team is winning or the end of the 9th if the away team is winning. This is different to the conditions of the moneyline betting.
Over/Under Total bets can also be made other statistical measures of a baseball game like, individual team total, RBIs, home runs. By far the most popular and simple to follow is the game total.
10 Unique Strategies to find a Baseball Winner.
- Bet Against the Streak
- Bet the Overs Total in Tight Games
- The Divi Dog
- Under in Games With Home Favorites
- Seek Out the Promotions
- Bet Within Your Bankroll
- Open Accounts With More Than One Bookmaker
- Primetime Teams May Not Be Primetime Performers
- Avoid the Prop Bets
- Sportsbook Social Media Tips
1. Bet Against the Streak
While MLB provides countless opportunities to bet sometimes waiting for the chance to strike pays off. A winning record above 500 in the majors is seen as a measure of success. Typically a team that has a 90 win season goes very close to winning their division, a 95 win season and they are almost certainly playoff bound. The key here is in a 162 game regular season 95 wins is a 58% win rate which means on 42% of game days this team lost.
Betting against a winning team continuing to win is a wonderful way to bank profit. The 95 win team will start many games as the favourite, and rightfully so. All this means is that when you are on the opponent you should be riding some juicy odds. This is magnified when the 95 win team is on a winning streak of 3 plus games, typically they start at shorter odds. Continuing that streak is difficult regardless of who takes the mound. Bet against them continuing the streak!
2. Bet the Overs Total in Tight Games.
The over/under total is a popular wager on MLB games. It is essentially a coin flip with bookmakers edge built in. One way to claw some of that edge back is to bet the overs in games where the bookmakers have the moneyline close.
The reasoning here is that in tight games extra innings become a real factor. The over/under total includes extra innings and therefore runs scored in those innings add up. Granted in many cases extra innings yield one more run, the winning run, but not always. Grab that advantage!
3. The Divi Dog.
Major League Baseball is an epically long season and sometimes one game seems like it can run into the next. There is no doubt about it though teams lift for the rivalry of the divisional games.
47% of a teams regular season schedule are divisional games and therefore lineups are familiar with each other, pitching rosters have already been faced, and opposition batters offer no surprises. Clearly betting underdogs without much thought is not a winning strategy but the home divisional dog is worth a second and third look, especially when they are at home!
4. Unders in Games with Home Favourites
Home favourites are everywhere on a daily basis in the MLB. There is nothing special about that. An angle that can be worked however is within the unders total game runs market. The thinking is simple. The home team is not required to bat in the bottom of the 9th if the game is already secured. This decreases the opportunities for runs to be scored. In the case of the home favourite the odds would suggest they will be in a winning position and the game ends in the middle of the 9th. This favors the unders.
5. Seek Out the Promotions
Due to the sheer number of games played in the MLB sportsbooks are continually looking to entice bettors to bring their business over to their book. There are often excellent promotions floating around if you are prepared to look. Many times these are focussed around midweek games as that is when betting volumes can often be less.
Some examples of these are as follows:
- Place a 4 option Parlay and if one option fails receive your stake back in free plays.
- Place a minimum $50 bet on selected games and receive a $10 bonus bet for each homerun your team hits.
- Take a moneyline bet and if your team blows a 9th innings lead, moneyback.
Backing winners is difficult at the best of times. Taking advantage of bookmakers promotions doesn’t make it any easier but it sure helps!
6. Bet within your Bankroll
The MLB season is long and can be a grind for players, coaches, fans and of course those who love to wager. One of the keys to success as an online sports bettor is to play the long game. A small percentage return on investment played out over many hundreds of bets can be turned into significant profit come the end of the season. This is why it is critical that as a bettor you manage your bankroll.
A useful guide to clever bankroll management is to wager no more than 2% of your existing bankroll on any single bet. A staking strategy of 2% gives the gambler 50 future bets within their bank. Losing streaks can and do happen so a resilient bankroll is critical to survival.
As in all aspects of life, the more you practice a skill, the closer you become to consistent outcomes. The 2% bankroll strategy affords the bettor time to refine strategies and improve their betting game.
7. Open Accounts with More Than One Bookmaker
Owning online sports bettings accounts with more than one bookmaker does not make you a gambling addict. It is a smart strategy for a few reasons but one in particular is the ability to shop around for the best price.
Sportsbooks do not always carry the same price on teams and matchups. Finding that extra 5% or 10% on your odds can be the difference in being profitable or not in the long term. It can take a little more time to search out those top odds but it pays off in the end. You may also be the recipient of some deposit bonuses and free bets as time rolls on.
The sportsbook players in the US market are set to explode as each state brings in legislation to legalise online sports betting. The competition for your business will be as fierce as has been seen in any sophisticated betting market in the world. One of the major carrots to entice bettors will be reduced juice for bookmakers in high volume markets like baseball. Multiple accounts is your ticket to harnessing the benefits.
8. Primetime Teams May Not Be Primetime Performers
Online sportsbooks love primetime sport as it encourages recreational bettors to wager on the result simply for entertainment purposes. This type of betting always favors the traditionally well supported team such as the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. The average fan bets through emotion and is looking for added incentive to go nuts for their team.
During primetime the same could be said for the favourite. Many times the recreational gambler will look to have an ‘interest’ in a game because the two teams playing are not of any emotional importance to them but they simply have the opportunity to watch some ball and need some incentive to stick around for 9 innings. Again this type of betting volume typically leans towards the favorite. The occasional gambler inadvertently considers the sportsbooks to be ‘in the know’ and so the favorite will surely win. Of course the bookmaker is guided more by the weight of money.
As a result of the gambling money flows for the traditional teams and the prematch favourite, the opponent often represents the real value. Don’t be afraid to buck the trend and take the underdog in primetime slots. After all the only thing that matters is making a profit, and maybe some bragging rights the next day when you picked the winner.
9. Avoid the Prop Bets
Proposition or prop bets are a heap of fun and can add another dimension to a game particularly if the particular match up has left you a little uninspired. The issue with them however, is that being consistently profitable is like climbing Everest backwards.
Props bets can range from individual player statistic totals like hits, RBIs, home runs through to team props like 3rd innings totals or first team to 5 runs to name just a few. The issue with these bets are that often they are binary markets which typically have a sizeable edge in favor of the bookmaker.
10. Sportsbook Social Media Tips
Why do all the work yourself! The social media presence of sportsbooks is big and growing bigger as they attempt to drive volume to their book by acquiring new customers. Part of this social media activity is to provide daily tips, best bets, and value parlays, all which have surprisingly good strike rates.
Why would they want to tip winners? It is a small price to pay to drive punters to their platform. It is in their best interest to make these tips pretty good. Generally they are written by their sport specific experts who are living and breathing that sport. Interestingly sports books make most of their money from balancing markets and not from ‘winning’ bets. Higher volume for them, regular winning tips for you. Win. Win.
