Predicting the winner of a sporting event minutes out from kick off is hard enough. Therefore attempting to foresee which team or player will claim a championship months in advance would seem like an impossible task. But is it? Can you actually turn a profit by playing the sports betting long game?
What is a Futures Bet? A Futures Bet is any wager placed on a market to be resulted in the future. They typically include season long team oriented markets like championship, divisional or conference winners and player oriented markets like most Touchdowns, yards gained or MVP. Futures bets are sport specific which creates of variance in markets offered.
What Makes Future Betting So Popular?
Despite the constant quest to turn a profit, the vast majority of sports bettors view wagering as entertainment. Futures betting fits right into the entertainment wheelhouse. The act of betting on a team preseason and tracking that bet throughout the year gives the better long term enjoyment. The bet is ‘live’ for so long that it becomes a thrilling journey of ups and downs all season long. In some cases by season’s end a bettor may feel like the enjoyment of the ‘ride’ was valuable enough and cashing the bet is a bonus. No sports bettor became profitable with that approach.
Futures betting is fertile ground for bragging rights. Any bettor who lands a long range bet, particularly on a popular market like the Super Bowl Winner or NBA Championship, has a free pass to let their buddies know all about it. A win like that portrays an above average level of sporting intuition from an astute knowledge even if it was really just dumb luck.
When betting on futures markets, bettors also have a tendency to play into their emotional bias and cause more harm than good to their betting bankroll. Many recreational bettors will almost automatically place a wager on their team to go all the way because, well, they would hate to not be on them if the dream actually came true. There are examples all across the world of sports where humble bettors hit massive rags to riches style pay days as their unlikely team achieves the impossible.
Think of the likes of the St Louis Blues in the NHL, who came from last place in early January of 2019, to NHL champions by June that year. They had reached as much as 250-1 in futures betting. Likewise Leicester City’s dramatic run to the English Premier League title in 2016 had seen them offered by some British sportsbooks at eye watering odds of 5000-1.
The thing is, these stories are high profile for the reason that they are rare, very rare. For every St Louis Blues or Leicester City miracle there are literally countless hail mary futures bets that crash and burn without as much as a sound. This is why emotional bias is the friend of sportsbooks the world over and why futures betting is a treacherous path to walk for any sport bettor.
Main Futures Markets
The ‘Outright winner’ Market
This encompasses the winner of the overall title. Regardless of the sport, picking this one early is a badge of honor. Clearly their can be only one winner and therefore the odds associated with a win like this are usually quite useful. Thsi market can be bet on preseason or in season as the odds will fluctuate as the fortunes of different teams change week to week.
League, Conference or Divisional Winner
As the name suggests this focuses on the winner of a specific section of a competition. Picking a winner in this market is technically easier as there are less possibilities however the shortened odds are reflective of this. NFL divisions have only four teams so its possible to see a favorite at minus odds even pre-season. In the MLB a division consists of five team and an NBA conference winner has to overcome half the competition. Clearly it is critical to know the nuance of the competition you are betting on prior to throwing your hard earned cash down.
A sub category in this type of market is the ‘To make the Playoffs’ market. This is quite self explanatory although again it is important to know exactly what it takes for a team to qualify in a specific example.
Over/Under Season Win Totals
The over/under season win totals are popular as they allow bettors to place season long wagers on teams that have no realistic chance of winning a title or even a division for that matter. These bets are usually ‘live’ deep into the season and give the bettor a ton of enjoyment. The other big attraction for the part time sports bettor is the fact they have a more in depth knowledge of their team and its divisional or conference opponents. This in theory gives them a ‘researched’ opinion.
Over/Under season totals by nature offer both sides of the market ie you can fade a team or bet on them to underperform. This is often not the case with other futures markets. For this reason their in theory should be true value for available for the bettor, as long as the sportsbook juice is kept at a reasonable level. Eg -110 or better.
Player Awards and Specials
These markets are specific to individual player performance and the variety offered to bettors differs depending on the sportsbook. Classic markets in this category are Most Valuable Player and ‘most’ markets like most yards, completed passes, most points, most goals, most sacks and so on. Over time it is expected that these markets will continue to grow as leagues offer sportsbooks more access to player performance data accessible from GPS monitors and ball tracking.
Other Markets
The above mentioned markets are simply the tip of the iceberg. In sports that attract enormous interest, like the NFL, many variations and connotation to these markets can be found. Many of these variations are truly exotic and while they are fun to bet on the privilege of doing so is often paid for by affording the sportsbook some extra edge. Despite this, if you genuinely see some value floating around then by all means hit up those exotic futures.
The Advantages of Betting Futures Markets
The Returns
While value is not always a hallmark of futures markets, when a bet does actually land the returns are usually a wonderful boost to the betting bankroll. Predicting a result months out from it being decided often brings with it bumper returns.
Double figure odds (+1000 or better) are par for the course. Those kinds of returns are not an everyday event when betting on sports and this is part of the lure of futures betting.
Cash Out Opportunities
The nature of futures markets means that bettors have ample opportunity to assess how their bet is travelling and decide on a plan of action. In this day and age there is more to betting than simply waiting for it to settle. The cash out feature offered by many mobile and online sportsbook is taylor made for futures betting.
Let’s say for example you bet on the San Francisco 49ers at +4000 (40-1) to win the superbowl. As luck would have it they string together a solid year and in week 16 they have clinched a playoff berth. In all likelihood the 49ers may now hypothetically be into something like +900 (9-1). At this point the sports book will be offering you a sizeable percentage of your potential winnings as a payout figure. Possibly as much as 35% of your potential winnings.
At this point as a bettor you have a decision to make. Walk with the money and bank some profit or let it all ride and continue the journey knowing full well the 9ers may be eliminated next week. Regardless of the decision the bettor makes, the benefit of the long futures betting timeline is that the bettor has the option to cash out and time to mull over the decision.
To learn more about the cash out feature read our complete guide.
Hedging Options
The art of successfully hedging a bet is one that many a successful bettor has learned to master. When betting futures markets hedging opportunities appear often. Essentially hedging a bet is where a bettor places a second bet on an outcome that opposes the first bet. If done correctly the bettor is able to lock in profit regardless of the final outcome of the market.
Here is a classic futures hedging example from the US Open. Let’s imagine a bettor places a pre tournament bet of $100 on Nick Kyrgios to win the title at the odds of +1700. Now imagine Kyrgios advances through to the semi finals where his odds to win the tournament have shortened to +330. This stands to reason with only four players left in the running.
The bettor at this point is faced with a hedging opportunity. Staring down potential winnings of $1700 if Kyrgios goes all the way the bettor has some money to play with in order to cover some of the other outcomes and lock in a return. Perhaps they invest a small amount on Kyrgios’s semi final opponent’s moneyline and again on his final opponent should he advance that far.
Regardless of the hedging strategy ultimately chosen, it is clear the futures market afforded the bettor this opportunity. If you are set to take on futures betting in a serious manner, it’s worth your while learning how to hedge.
Value Fading Public Darlings
Like all forms of betting finding true value is the key to eventually becoming profitable long term. Often times teams who enjoy plenty of public favor are too short in the betting. Sportsbooks know that emotional bias will play a roll and even if they wind the odds in a little on fan favorites, the bets will still come.
This logic seems to suggest that there would be some value around on fading those popular teams, particularly in the over/under season wins total market. If the weight of the fans money has pushed that win total out by a half point or maybe even a whole point then the only play is to take the under no matter how unpopular that seems.
It is important to note that in outright winner markets (eg Super Bowl winner or AFC champion) regardless of how much money has come for fan favorite teams this does not always mean there is value for the ugly ducklings. This is due to the one way nature of that type of market. More on that later in the article.
The Cons of Betting Futures
One Way Markets
One way markets are a huge problem for bettors when taking on the futures betting game. This is emphasised in the championship or divisional winner type markets. The fact that a sportsbook is not offering the alternate outcome of ‘not to win’ means that they don’t actually have to offer true value on the ‘to win’ market. If the odds were two way, then savvy bettors would be able to hit the opposing side.
With the risk of having to offer the opposing side of market being removed, sportsbooks are able to juice the markets they offer. Of course this doesn’t mean there is no value out there. Sportsbooks, like all of us, are trying to predict a market that will across a season fluctuate immensely. If you get it right then chances are you will land a great price. The issue is you are overcoming that little bit extra sportsbook juice. Not impossible, just hard.
Opportunity Cost
Probably the most frustrating aspect of futures betting is that the money you have invested is tied up in the market for a long period of time. This raises the likelihood of some opportunity cost. That is, the money tied up in the futures bet is unable to be invested and reinvested elsewhere in markets that result more quickly. There is a compounding nature to the opportunity cost where winnings on winnings or growth on growth is potentially missed.
As a futures bettor, it is worthwhile ensuring the money you invest long term markets is not money originally earmarked for week to week betting.
What You Must Avoid Betting Futures
Having placed a long term futures bet there is one pitfall you absolutely must avoid, yet often you have fallen into it before you realise.
That is, letting your long term investment cloud your short term betting. Let’s imagine for a minute you have bet on the LA Chargers to register over 9.5 regular season NFL wins. There is a real danger that week to week the subconscious desire to see the Chargers win has you wagering on them in scenarios where the price says you should do otherwise.
Regardless of whether the Chargers were to start a game as strong favorites or underdogs, betting on them at an undervalued price just because you need them to win for your season bet, is reckless. Amazingly it happens all the time. Week to week games need to be entirely compartmentalised from the season win-loss record needed for your futures bet to cash.
The Game Starts Now!
Futures betting can be a love it or hate it kind of market for sports bettors. If you have a good deal of patience and the ability to see the big picture then betting on futures markets may just be for you. As in all types of betting, some research, intuition and a nose for value will serve you well in your futures betting career.
