Rugby Union, that weird British game, dominated by Kiwis, played in far flung corners of the globe, that seems to resemble a group beating of the poor soul who has possession of the ball. Is it actually worth betting on?
Of course it is!
If you find yourself aimlessly searching your mobile sportsbook looking for something to bet on then you could do a lot worse than throwing some cash down on the great game of rugby.
You don’t even need to know a ton about the game!
In the next 5 minutes you will learn how to wager on one of Rugby’s most popular betting markets. TOTALS or otherwise known as the over/under.
Before you start betting check out our sign up bonuses with PointsBet and UniBet. Kick off your rugby betting experience with a few free swings!
Before you start betting check out our sign up bonuses with PointsBet and UniBet. Kick off your rugby betting experience with a few free swings!
What is Rugby Totals Betting?
The Rugby Totals market is really straight forward. Sportsbooks post a totals ‘line’ which represents the total amount of points they believe will be scored in a particular rugby game.
The bettor then simply wagers on whether the game total will land over or under that line. Many times books will use a half point (eg 48.5 points) to prevent the final outcome being a tie or a ‘Push’. More about that later.
For example, if Worcester were playing Wasps in the English Premiership Rugby competition sportsbooks may set the points total line at 54.5 points. From a betting perspective it does not matter whether you believe Worcester or Wasps are the better side. You are simply deciding whether you think the final points total will go under 54.5 points (54 or less) or over 54.5 points (55 or more).
If Wasps were to go on and win the game 30 – 26 then betters who took the over 54.5 would win cash their tickets. This is because the game would have a total of 56 points and cover the ‘line’ by 1.5 points. As you will see later in the article that is almost the barest of margins.
Here are a few things more things you need to know:
The Odds
At any US sportsbook you will be dealing with American Odds. The beauty of the Rugby Points total or over under betting that by adjusting the total points line books are able to offer the same odds for both teams most of the time. That is the fluctuation in odds is less because the line changes instead (usually). A very different concept for those who are more used to betting the moneyline market.
Typically over under total odds will be in the vicinity of -110 meaning a bettor would need to place a bet of $110 to win a profit of $100, giving them a total return of $210.
For more on what these numbers actually mean check out our article on reading sports odds.
As stated before the fluctuation in the betting market comes from the change in the line not the odds. In the case of the above example, as betting money flows in perhaps a bigger portion of it will be bet on say the under instead of the over. If the money is lopsided then the sportsbook adjust the handicap to meet the market.
For instance they may change the total game points line from 54.5 points to 53.5 or even lower to attract more money to the over market. It is in the best interest of the sportsbook to attract an even spread of money to both sides of the market. Of course that doesn’t always happen.
Sometimes sportsbooks may not want to adjust the total as they think it will skew betting too much the other way. An over correction. So instead they will slightly alter the odds attached to the line. For example in the Worcester v Wasps game instead of adjusting the line from the 54.5 they may instead change the -110 on the under to -115 to reduce their exposure to the market. Watch out for this!
Ok so you have an idea of how the Rugby points total betting market is framed but really that means nothing if you don’t know how points are scored in this strange game.
The Scoring
As was outlined in our Rugby Moneyline Article the Rugby point scoring system is quite simple. It’s similarities to American Football in the way it is scored is useful for those familiar with the NFL or College football. Having said that, the regularity of scoring and the flow of the game are a little different so here is your cheat sheet:
| Mode of Scoring | Points Value | What actually is it? |
| Try | 5 | A player places the ball with downward pressure in the in goal area (endzone). |
| Try Conversion | 2 | After a try the kicker successfully kicks the ball between the posts (above the crossbar) from a position in line with where the try was scored. Therefore a converted try is worth 7 points total. |
| Penalty Goal | 3 | After a penalty is awarded to a team they have the option of taking a shot for goal from the exact position of the foul. If the kick passes between the posts and above the crossbar it is successful. |
| Field Goal | 3 | In general play a player successfully drop kicks the ball from an onside position and it passes between the posts and above the crossbar. |
As can be seen in the table, scores jump in multiples of 3, 5 and 7. A rugby game is played over 80 minutes and it is possible in a high scoring game for points to be scored at a rate of a point per minute.
A good goal kicker is critical for a high scoring game. Some professional rugby kickers can run at high 80% success rates. If a team can convert most of their tries their score will jump in multiples of 7 instead of 5. It makes a big difference to the total game points.
It is important to note that penalty goals are a long range scoring method. It is possible for kickers to land penalty goals from halfway or even at times just inside their own half.
Some teams prefer to take penalty shots and grab the three points instead of going for the less likely try and risking coming up empty. Teams that favor penalty kicks tend to be lower scoring.
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What Are Rugby’s Key Over/Under Total?
Well there is no clear answer here. There are many factors that contribute to how high or low scoring a game can be. That being said, there are some critical thresholds you need to be aware of when betting rugby game totals.
The higher the scoring the less individual totals are key numbers. For example if the total is posted above 50 points (over 7 converted tries) then the sheer number of variations to scoring means that any number could conceivably come up. At this point finding the best number by shopping around is your best strategy.
The following table gives a quick breakdown of some key numbers you should look out for when betting the rugby over/under:
| Key Total | What makes it Key? |
| 42, 49, 56, 63Other Multiples of 7 | The try is the highest scoring method and being worth 7 points it makes multiples of 7 pretty important. Clearly the post try conversion makes a big difference here and so variation occur |
| 3 point Variations | The penalty goal is the most common small scoring increment. It provides variations to the multiples of 7. Will often be the go to method of scoring to break a deadlock. |
Beware of poor weather. Inclement weather affects the flow of a rugby game and can change the way teams approach offense. Wet weather makes attacking rugby a challenge and therefore scoring can be lower.
What is the Hook or Half Point?
The hook or half point is really a means to prevent the points total market finishing as a tie. It is in the best interests of the sportsbook to pay out the bet as they take a margin on the total handle. If the result is a push then all bets are refunded meaning no margin is taken.
As a rugby points total bettor it is smart to look for a half point that works off or under a key number in favor of the way you wish to bet. For example in a 56.5 points line the half point favors the under as 56 is a multiple of 7 so the half point means 8 converted tries still plays to the under. If the line was 55.5 the half point favors the over as it has moved the line below 8 converted tries.
Is Overtime Played in Rugby and Does it Count When Betting the Point Spread?
As we covered extensively in our comprehensive Rugby Betting Article, sometimes overtime is played and sometimes it isn’t. You need to be aware of when it will be played because it directly affects over and under betting.
In rugby, overtime is called ‘extra time’. It is typically only ever played in rugby during the knockout stages of tournament play or during playoffs (finals).
Regular season games and regular international games (called test matches) DO NOT include overtime. This certainly favors the under!
If extra time or overtime is played then it will be included in totals betting.
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One More Thing You Need to Know About Rugby Over and Under Betting.
There is a big difference between international rugby and domestic rugby. International rugby is all about pride and winning ugly is just as good as winning in style. Much like international soccer, international rugby can be a dour and grind it out type affair. Not always but often.
Domestic rugby is different. Most domestic rugby competitions reward teams for playing attacking running rugby. Teams that score four tries in a game are awarded bonus points in the overall standings. Teams that win by more than 7 points are awarded another bonus point.
All this means domestic rugby game totals can be large as teams are encouraged to throw caution to the wind, play entertaining football and score more often.
Points Totals in international rugby are often lower than domestic rugby, unless you have a powerhouse playing a minnow. International rugby defense has less holes in it. Defensive line breaks are fewer and so scoring of tries is less regular.
The Game Starts Now!
Rugby may seem strange for those new to this great game. The fact is while it may be strange, betting on it is not that difficult. Perhaps betting the over and under points totals is a great place to kick off your rugby betting experience.
Good luck and as always gamble responsibly!